Game Recap: CAR 5, TOR 4, November 9, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR5

FinalSun, Nov 9, 2025Every game that night

TOR4

CAR beat TOR 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 5.02 expected goals to 2.38. CAR outshot TOR 47 to 20. W. Nylander led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Hall had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. B. Bussi stopped 16 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	2	1	2	5
TOR	3	1	0	4

1st 5:00TORW. Nylander0.08 xG
1st 8:34CARS. AhoPP0.09 xG
1st 14:31CARS. Jarvis0.14 xG
1st 15:31TORJ. Tavares0.40 xG
1st 19:01TORW. NylanderPP0.08 xG
2nd 11:03TORA. Matthews0.13 xG
2nd 16:51CARS. Walker0.00 xG
3rd 3:20CART. Hall0.41 xG
3rd 12:13CARL. Stankoven0.10 xG

Team Stats

CARTOR

47Shots on goal20

5.02Expected goals2.38

89Shot attempts35

325v5 shots on goal15

1/4Power play1/3

13Hits21

9Blocked shots23

8Penalty minutes10

12Giveaways9

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 5.02 xGTOR 2.38 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR47 on goal, 5 scored

TOR20 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	0	2	2	5	0	0	+1	0	15:59	4:55
L. Stankoven	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	14:14	1:39
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	20:26	4:55
S. Jarvis	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	19:59	4:55
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	6	3	0	+1	0	17:30	4:55
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	2	15:32	1:39
T. Hall	LW	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	12:59	1:39
W. Carrier	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	12:25	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:52	0:05
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	15:04	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	9:51	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:25	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	2	2	4	0	1	+1	2	25:33	4:20
S. Walker	D	1	0	1	2	2	2	0	0	26:43	1:20
A. Nikishin	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	19:08	0:54
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	19:29	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:23	0:05
C. Legault	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	7:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	20	16	4	.800	60:00	Win
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	1	1	2	4	0	1	-1	0	22:04	4:51
W. Nylander	RW	2	0	2	3	0	1	-2	4	21:19	4:51
M. Knies	LW	0	2	2	1	2	0	-2	0	21:04	4:42
J. Tavares	C	1	1	2	5	0	0	+1	0	18:31	4:51
B. McMann	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	2	14:51	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	1	1	3	+1	0	12:33	0:22
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:16	0:22
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:30	0:22
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:13	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:37	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:30	0:22
S. Blais	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	7:25	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	1	1	5	-1	4	23:22	0:09
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	20:31	1:52
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	19:54	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	17:56	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	17:12	3:21
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	47	42	5	.894	58:30	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1J. Staal13:12J. Martinook14:10W. Carrier12:25

Line 2L. Stankoven11:56J. Blake13:14N. Ehlers10:25

Line 3S. Aho11:53S. Jarvis11:41A. Svechnikov11:44

Line 4T. Hall11:20J. Kotkaniemi9:16E. Robinson7:18

Pair 1S. Walker20:13K. Miller17:01

Pair 2A. Nikishin16:26J. Nystrom17:25

Pair 3M. Reilly14:36C. Legault6:45

TOR

Line 1M. Knies15:00W. Nylander14:46A. Matthews13:36

Line 2N. Robertson11:32B. McMann12:57J. Tavares12:10

Line 3N. Roy12:27M. Maccelli12:08D. Joshua10:58

Line 4M. Domi8:08S. Blais7:25C. Jarnkrok7:22

Pair 1J. McCabe20:01S. Benoit14:28

Pair 2M. Rielly17:57B. Carlo14:47

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson12:35P. Myers12:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.2, TOR 3.0	CAR 5, TOR 4
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	CAR 30.4, TOR 25.1	CAR 47, TOR 20
Win chance	CAR 53%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.8	4	1.08	2	43%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.7	3	1.03	2	36%	2
CAR S. Jarvis	2.6	5	0.78	1	29%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	5	0.81	2	31%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.5	5	0.90	1	31%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.4	5	0.68	2	23%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.3	2	0.37	1	12%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.3	6	0.65	1	24%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.1	1	0.77	2	27%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.9	2	0.45	2	17%	1
CAR M. Reilly	1.9	1	0.29	0	6%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.9	1	0.44	1	21%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.8	3	0.46	1	18%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.7	0	0.36	1	18%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	6	0.51	1	19%	1
CAR A. Nikishin	1.7	2	0.46	1	10%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	4	0.44	2	11%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.5	2	0.18	0	4%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	1	0.42	0	15%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.3	0	0.42	0	12%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.3	1	0.53	1	9%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.3	0	0.44	0	14%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.3	0	0.36	0	14%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.3	0	0.41	0	16%	0
CAR C. Legault	1.3	0	0.24	0	6%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	0	0.27	0	11%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.2	1	0.22	1	11%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.1	1	0.38	0	7%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	2	0.29	0	11%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.1	0	0.12	0	4%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	0	0.33	0	15%	0
TOR B. Carlo	0.9	0	0.15	0	4%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	0	0.27	0	12%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.8	1	0.31	1	5%	0
TOR S. Blais	0.7	1	0.23	0	8%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.5	2	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.