Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CAR4
Final/OTFri, Mar 20, 2026Every game that night
TOR3

CAR beat TOR 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.90 expected goals to 2.64. CAR outshot TOR 36 to 26. S. Aho led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). S. Walker had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. B. Bussi stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
CAR03014
TOR11103
  1. 1st 11:48TORD. Joshua0.57 xG
  2. 2nd 5:57CARJ. StaalPP0.10 xG
  3. 2nd 12:35CARE. Robinson0.33 xG
  4. 2nd 13:47TORJ. Tavares0.13 xG
  5. 2nd 17:40CARK. MillerSH0.15 xG
  6. 3rd 13:50TORW. Nylander0.18 xG
  7. OT 0:41CARA. Nikishin0.05 xG

Team Stats

CARTOR
36Shots on goal26
3.90Expected goals2.64
76Shot attempts42
225v5 shots on goal21
1/5Power play0/2
20Hits21
11Blocked shots21
4Penalty minutes10
9Giveaways14
5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.90 xGTOR 2.64 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdOTTOR goal, 11:48CAR goal, 5:57CAR goal, 12:35TOR goal, 13:47CAR goal, 17:40TOR goal, 13:50CAR goal, 0:41

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR36 on goal, 4 scored
TOR25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. AhoC0222000018:473:57
S. JarvisC0222000017:563:33
J. StaalC101242-1018:032:31
E. RobinsonLW101221+108:250:00
N. EhlersLW000320-1018:003:36
T. HallLW0004100017:395:58
J. BlakeRW0004010017:074:50
L. StankovenC0003000016:324:26
J. MartinookLW000021-1016:310:00
A. SvechnikovRW000001-2014:361:30
M. JankowskiLW0000210010:401:26
W. CarrierLW000150009:320:00
K. MillerD101100+1023:584:28
A. NikishinD1014000214:233:55
J. SlavinD000101-2023:580:00
J. ChatfieldD0001000022:070:00
S. WalkerD000523-1220:421:45
M. ReillyD000100-109:070:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
B. Bussi26233.88560:41Win
F. Andersen000–0:00

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. MaccelliLW022002+1012:591:26
W. NylanderRW101401-1020:391:45
J. TavaresC101340-1016:121:49
B. GroulxC011321+1015:530:00
C. JarnkrokC011000+1014:460:00
D. JoshuaC101210+1011:250:32
M. KniesLW000100-1020:011:48
M. DomiC000200+1015:360:35
E. CowanRW0001110212:210:34
S. LorentzC000132+1012:180:00
N. RobertsonLW0001110210:390:38
J. QuillanC0000210010:120:00
J. McCabeD011101+2022:550:00
T. StecherD0002130021:410:04
S. BenoitD0001330021:280:00
M. RiellyD000104-1018:330:59
O. Ekman-LarssonD000210+2218:011:43
B. CarloD000121+1416:240:02
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Woll36324.88960:41OT loss
A. Stolarz000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1J. Staal14:17J. Martinook15:22N. Ehlers13:35
Line 2S. Aho12:11S. Jarvis11:48A. Svechnikov12:20
Line 3L. Stankoven12:05J. Blake12:17T. Hall11:41
Line 4M. Jankowski9:14W. Carrier9:32E. Robinson8:25
Pair 1J. Slavin21:03J. Chatfield19:31
Pair 2S. Walker18:05K. Miller17:44
Pair 3M. Reilly9:07A. Nikishin9:48

TOR

Line 1W. Nylander16:04M. Domi14:07M. Knies14:03
Line 2N. Robertson10:01E. Cowan11:47J. Tavares12:59
Line 3C. Jarnkrok11:07S. Lorentz9:12J. Quillan8:57
Line 4D. Joshua10:53B. Groulx11:48M. Maccelli11:33
Pair 1S. Benoit17:44T. Stecher16:38
Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson15:35J. McCabe16:48
Pair 3M. Rielly14:48B. Carlo14:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCAR 3.6, TOR 3.0CAR 4, TOR 3
Total goals6.67
Shots on goalCAR 35.0, TOR 24.4CAR 36, TOR 26
Win chanceCAR 60%CAR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CAR S. Jarvis2.920.82229%0
CAR S. Aho2.620.94230%0
CAR A. Svechnikov2.500.79026%0
CAR N. Ehlers2.530.80025%0
TOR W. Nylander2.541.11137%1
TOR J. Tavares2.430.87132%1
CAR J. Blake2.240.56021%0
CAR S. Walker2.150.3109%0
CAR L. Stankoven2.030.48018%0
CAR T. Hall1.840.55019%0
TOR M. Knies1.810.78026%0
CAR J. Slavin1.710.3208%0
CAR K. Miller1.710.47111%1
TOR N. Robertson1.610.43019%0
TOR M. Maccelli1.500.59218%0
CAR J. Martinook1.500.39014%0
CAR J. Staal1.520.44117%1
CAR J. Chatfield1.510.2608%0
CAR A. Nikishin1.540.36111%1
CAR M. Reilly1.510.2105%0
TOR E. Cowan1.410.41015%0
TOR M. Domi1.320.50014%0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.320.4509%0
TOR M. Rielly1.310.4509%0
CAR W. Carrier1.210.22011%0
CAR E. Robinson1.220.25111%1
CAR M. Jankowski1.000.28013%0
TOR B. Carlo1.010.1503%0
TOR J. McCabe0.910.3115%0
TOR B. Groulx0.930.20110%0
TOR S. Lorentz0.910.2309%0
TOR T. Stecher0.920.1704%0
TOR D. Joshua0.820.32115%1
TOR C. Jarnkrok0.800.24112%0
TOR J. Quillan0.700.1108%0
TOR S. Benoit0.610.0902%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.