CAR beat VGK 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.64 expected goals to 2.29. J. Kotkaniemi led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Kotkaniemi had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. P. Kochetkov stopped 30 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| VGK | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 1st 4:24CARE. Robinson0.11 xG
- 1st 12:46CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.36 xG
- 2nd 3:38CARJ. StaalSH0.12 xG
- 2nd 6:13CART. Jost0.04 xG
- 3rd 6:11VGKJ. Eichel0.08 xG
- 3rd 14:28CARJ. MartinookEN0.75 xG
- 3rd 19:47VGKI. BarbashevPP0.19 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 4.64 xGVGK 2.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:42 | 2:01 |
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:22 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:53 | 4:44 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:51 | 2:05 |
| T. Jost | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:44 | 4:53 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:39 | 4:48 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:17 | 2:12 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:55 | 4:47 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:09 | 2:03 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 20:41 | 2:08 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:46 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:54 | 4:59 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Martin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:27 | 3:09 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:43 | 1:42 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 1:43 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:35 | 2:50 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:31 | 2:54 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:47 | 2:50 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:15 | 1:40 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Rondbjerg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 25:03 | 2:37 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 21:03 | 1:26 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:39 | 1:58 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:06 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.3, VGK 3.0 | CAR 5, VGK 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 32.3, VGK 27.1 | CAR 34, VGK 32 |
| Win chance | CAR 54% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.2 | 4 | 0.99 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.6 | 3 | 0.79 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.5 | 0 | 0.90 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.5 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.3 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 1.8 | 6 | 0.60 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.8 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.7 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.6 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.5 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 6 | 0.37 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.5 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.5 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.5 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.4 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 4 | 0.29 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| VGK J. Rondbjerg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.