Game Recap: CAR 4, VGK 5 (OT), June 6, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR4

Final/OTSat, Jun 6, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

VGK5

VGK beat CAR 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.48 expected goals to 3.28. M. Marner scored three for VGK. M. Marner had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. C. Hart stopped 29 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	2OT	T
CAR	0	0	4	0	0	4
VGK	0	4	0	0	1	5

2nd 10:26VGKT. HertlPP0.18 xG
2nd 10:42VGKM. Marner0.01 xG
2nd 14:32VGKM. Marner0.16 xG
2nd 16:52VGKM. Marner0.05 xG
3rd 7:03CARJ. Martinook0.22 xG
3rd 7:29CART. Hall0.13 xG
3rd 7:42CARJ. Staal0.06 xG
3rd 18:18CARA. SvechnikovPP0.48 xG
2OT 5:38VGKS. Theodore0.03 xG

Team Stats

CARVGK

33Shots on goal35

3.28Expected goals3.48

88Shot attempts72

265v5 shots on goal31

1/2Power play1/2

42Hits66

14Blocked shots30

2Penalty minutes4

29Giveaways24

3Takeaways11

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.28 xGVGK 3.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR32 on goal, 4 scored

VGK33 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	0	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	24:51	2:02
J. Staal	C	1	1	2	5	3	0	+1	0	23:16	1:29
S. Jarvis	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	2	27:22	2:02
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	0	1	3	5	1	-2	0	25:49	2:02
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	2	2	1	-1	0	24:10	1:11
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	-1	0	23:50	1:11
T. Hall	LW	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	0	22:57	1:11
J. Martinook	LW	1	0	1	3	4	1	0	0	20:41	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	18:44	0:00
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	24:36	1:56
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:10	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	6:51	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	29:56	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	5	1	0	0	34:20	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	33:25	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	3	1	4	+1	0	28:15	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	22:43	2:02
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	3	5	0	-2	0	19:16	1:11

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	16	12	4	.750	40:00
B. Bussi	19	18	1	.947	45:26	Loss

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	3	1	4	10	3	0	+3	0	27:00	1:55
T. Hertl	C	1	1	2	2	5	1	+1	0	15:20	0:10
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	1	2	4	-1	0	26:43	2:07
W. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	+3	0	24:09	0:03
B. Howden	C	0	1	1	3	6	1	+2	0	21:31	0:03
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	3	4	4	-1	0	27:03	2:07
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	7	0	-1	0	23:25	0:15
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	8	2	-1	0	19:40	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	14	1	-1	2	19:19	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	17:47	0:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:40	2:07
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	15:49	0:00
S. Theodore	D	1	1	2	3	1	3	+3	2	39:09	1:46
B. McNabb	D	0	2	2	1	1	0	+3	0	35:47	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	30:56	0:03
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	4	6	-1	0	25:08	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	20:53	0:14
D. Coghlan	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	33	29	4	.879	85:38	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1J. Staal20:48S. Jarvis25:20N. Ehlers22:40

Line 2T. Hall21:46J. Blake22:56L. Stankoven22:36

Line 3E. Robinson17:53M. Jankowski15:10W. Carrier6:51

Line 4J. Martinook19:25A. Svechnikov23:47S. Aho21:41

Pair 1S. Walker33:30K. Miller32:33

Pair 2J. Slavin28:41J. Chatfield26:58

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere20:38A. Nikishin18:02

VGK

Line 1M. Stone23:45J. Eichel24:36I. Barbashev23:10

Line 2M. Marner24:28W. Karlsson22:55B. Howden21:02

Line 3N. Dowd18:15C. Smith19:19K. Kolesar15:49

Line 4C. Sissons16:11P. Dorofeyev15:33T. Hertl15:10

Pair 1B. McNabb33:45S. Theodore36:38

Pair 2R. Andersson29:42J. Lauzon22:40

Pair 3D. Coghlan17:38N. Hanifin20:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.2, VGK 2.9	CAR 4, VGK 5
Total goals	6.1	9
Shots on goal	CAR 29.3, VGK 24.2	CAR 33, VGK 35
Win chance	CAR 54%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	2.7	1	1.07	1	29%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.5	1	0.71	0	33%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	1	0.72	1	28%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.4	2	0.79	0	27%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.2	0	0.80	2	29%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.2	0	0.53	1	22%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.2	3	0.64	1	24%	1
VGK M. Marner	2.0	10	1.07	4	28%	3
CAR J. Blake	2.0	2	0.59	1	21%	0
CAR T. Hall	2.0	3	0.61	1	21%	1
VGK W. Karlsson	1.9	2	0.56	1	21%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.8	3	0.28	0	7%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.7	2	0.56	2	21%	1
VGK M. Stone	1.7	3	0.83	0	26%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.6	3	0.60	2	11%	1
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	1	0.61	0	21%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	1	0.53	0	10%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	3	0.35	1	14%	1
VGK R. Andersson	1.5	4	0.37	0	9%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.4	0	0.27	1	6%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.4	1	0.43	0	8%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	5	0.42	2	17%	1
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	3	0.26	0	7%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	3	0.48	1	23%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.3	0	0.36	0	7%	0
VGK D. Coghlan	1.2	1	0.15	0	3%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	1	0.26	1	12%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	1	0.23	0	10%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	0.9	3	0.23	0	6%	0
VGK B. McNabb	0.9	1	0.20	2	4%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	2	0.27	0	13%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.8	1	0.24	0	11%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.7	1	0.16	0	7%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.6	0	0.15	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.