Game Recap: CAR 5, VGK 3, June 9, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR5

FinalTue, Jun 9, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

VGK3

CAR beat VGK 5-3, with the chances close: 2.62 expected goals to 2.48. N. Ehlers led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Stone had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. B. Bussi stopped 18 of 21.

Team Stats

CARVGK

28Shots on goal21

2.62Expected goals2.48

51Shot attempts52

225v5 shots on goal13

1/3Power play0/3

34Hits38

16Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways22

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.62 xGVGK 2.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR27 on goal, 4 scored

VGK21 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	1	2	3	3	1	0	+2	0	19:09	3:40
J. Staal	C	2	0	2	4	2	1	+2	0	16:34	0:41
J. Blake	RW	1	1	2	3	2	0	+1	2	15:14	1:42
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	3	1	2	-1	0	18:14	2:43
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	16:54	1:36
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	2	16:33	1:38
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	18:30	2:42
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	13:48	0:00
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:56	2:42
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:18	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:38	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	8:23	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	1	1	1	4	0	+2	0	22:51	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	13:02	2:52
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	0	24:41	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	2	22:45	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	5	3	-2	0	22:17	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	10:13	1:29

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	21	18	3	.857	60:00	Win
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Karlsson	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+1	0	16:53	2:10
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	-1	0	23:58	4:23
M. Stone	RW	1	0	1	5	6	0	-1	0	21:34	3:57
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	15:40	1:43
C. Sissons	C	0	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	12:33	0:00
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:44	3:50
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:01	2:02
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	16:09	4:17
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	13:55	3:51
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	2	10:33	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	9:50	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	6:17	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	-2	2	25:00	1:37
R. Andersson	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	21:35	2:10
B. McNabb	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	20:46	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	20:20	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	7	1	-1	0	12:11	0:00
D. Coghlan	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	27	23	4	.852	58:15	Loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1T. Hall14:33L. Stankoven15:18J. Blake13:32

Line 2N. Ehlers13:08S. Jarvis11:53J. Staal11:15

Line 3J. Martinook11:23S. Aho11:27A. Svechnikov9:34

Line 4M. Jankowski7:29E. Robinson9:38W. Carrier8:23

Pair 1K. Miller18:59S. Walker17:54

Pair 2J. Slavin19:18J. Chatfield18:29

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere9:26A. Nikishin7:51

VGK

Line 1M. Stone13:51J. Eichel14:23I. Barbashev14:59

Line 2W. Karlsson13:19B. Howden12:16M. Marner14:38

Line 3T. Hertl8:20P. Dorofeyev10:07C. Sissons10:45

Line 4N. Dowd9:42C. Smith8:49K. Kolesar6:17

Pair 1B. McNabb18:17S. Theodore19:48

Pair 2N. Hanifin17:13R. Andersson16:24

Pair 3D. Coghlan10:25J. Lauzon9:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.2, VGK 3.0	CAR 5, VGK 3
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	CAR 29.5, VGK 24.8	CAR 28, VGK 21
Win chance	CAR 54%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	2.8	3	1.11	0	30%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.7	2	0.78	0	29%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.5	2	0.70	0	33%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	3	0.83	3	28%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.4	0	0.70	0	26%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.3	3	0.58	1	24%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.3	3	0.83	1	29%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.2	0	1.13	1	30%	0
CAR T. Hall	2.1	3	0.66	1	22%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	3	0.63	2	22%	1
CAR S. Walker	2.0	1	0.31	0	8%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.0	1	0.60	2	22%	1
VGK M. Stone	1.9	5	0.90	1	28%	1
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	2	0.69	1	13%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.7	2	0.55	0	21%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.6	1	0.40	1	10%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	1	0.65	0	23%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	1	0.38	0	15%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	1	0.54	1	10%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	4	0.45	2	19%	2
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	2	0.29	0	6%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	1	0.45	0	9%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	1	0.27	1	7%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.5	1	0.51	1	24%	1
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	0	0.30	0	13%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.3	1	0.36	0	7%	0
VGK D. Coghlan	1.2	0	0.15	0	3%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	0	0.26	1	5%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	2	0.25	1	10%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.0	0	0.24	0	6%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	0	0.28	0	13%	0
CAR W. Carrier	0.9	0	0.20	0	9%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.9	0	0.26	0	12%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	0	0.14	0	3%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.8	0	0.19	0	9%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.6	0	0.18	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.