Game Recap: CAR 3, VGK 0, June 14, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR3

FinalSun, Jun 14, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

VGK0

CAR beat VGK 3-0, with the chances close: 2.58 expected goals to 2.29. J. Blake led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Dorofeyev had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. B. Bussi stopped 22 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	1	1	1	3
VGK	0	0	0	0

1st 3:47CART. Hall0.08 xG
2nd 13:31CARJ. Blake0.15 xG
3rd 18:52CARN. EhlersEN0.75 xG

Team Stats

CARVGK

23Shots on goal22

2.58Expected goals2.29

41Shot attempts50

185v5 shots on goal10

0/3Power play0/3

32Hits39

12Blocked shots7

6Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways19

10Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.58 xGVGK 2.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR20 on goal, 3 scored

VGK22 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Blake	RW	1	1	2	3	0	2	+2	2	14:32	2:13
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	1	5	0	+2	2	16:15	2:16
N. Ehlers	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:28	2:50
T. Hall	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	14:38	1:49
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	20:14	1:59
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	18:44	1:57
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:02	1:04
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	3	6	0	+1	0	16:26	2:17
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	16:01	0:17
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:26	0:17
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	8:53	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:50	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	22:31	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+2	0	23:50	0:25
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+1	0	23:37	0:10
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	0	22:59	0:52
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:54	2:42
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:40	1:27

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	22	22	0	1.000	60:00	Win
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	2	3	2	-1	2	24:07	4:07
M. Stone	RW	2	3	0	-1	0	23:49	4:07
M. Marner	RW	3	3	0	-3	0	22:58	4:15
P. Dorofeyev	RW	6	0	0	-1	0	17:50	3:12
T. Hertl	C	3	4	0	-1	2	17:00	4:10
B. Howden	C	1	2	0	-2	0	14:52	1:22
C. Sissons	C	1	5	1	0	0	13:11	0:00
I. Barbashev	LW	2	3	0	-2	0	11:48	0:18
N. Dowd	C	0	2	1	0	0	11:29	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	2	0	0	0	10:43	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	3	0	0	0	9:21	0:00
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	0	0	9:12	0:16
S. Theodore	D	1	0	0	-1	0	24:17	0:24
B. McNabb	D	0	1	0	0	0	20:12	0:08
R. Andersson	D	0	1	1	-2	2	19:11	0:16
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	2	-2	0	16:33	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	1	7	0	0	0	15:27	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	0	13:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	22	20	2	.909	58:02	Loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1S. Aho15:37A. Svechnikov13:37J. Martinook12:57

Line 2L. Stankoven12:51J. Blake11:55T. Hall12:06

Line 3J. Staal12:07N. Ehlers11:43S. Jarvis13:01

Line 4E. Robinson8:53M. Jankowski7:46W. Carrier10:03

Pair 1S. Walker20:19K. Miller19:33

Pair 2J. Slavin18:04J. Chatfield18:47

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere8:03A. Nikishin10:13

VGK

Line 1M. Stone15:54J. Eichel16:33P. Dorofeyev13:25

Line 2M. Marner14:37B. Howden11:33I. Barbashev11:30

Line 3N. Dowd10:15C. Smith8:49B. Bowman8:56

Line 4T. Hertl10:52C. Sissons11:10R. Smith9:15

Pair 1B. McNabb16:44S. Theodore19:45

Pair 2N. Hanifin14:00R. Andersson17:16

Pair 3K. Korczak13:58J. Lauzon13:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.2, VGK 2.9	CAR 3, VGK 0
Total goals	6.2	3
Shots on goal	CAR 29.2, VGK 24.5	CAR 23, VGK 22
Win chance	CAR 54%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	2.8	2	1.10	0	29%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.6	2	0.77	0	29%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.5	6	0.70	0	33%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.4	3	0.85	1	28%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.3	1	0.58	1	24%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.2	3	1.13	0	30%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.2	3	0.67	0	25%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.2	1	0.82	0	29%	0
CAR T. Hall	2.1	2	0.65	1	22%	1
CAR J. Blake	2.0	3	0.62	2	22%	1
VGK M. Stone	2.0	2	0.94	0	30%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.8	0	0.30	0	7%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.7	3	0.56	0	21%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.7	1	0.66	0	12%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	1	0.46	0	19%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.5	0	0.39	0	9%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	0	0.29	1	6%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	2	0.59	0	21%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	3	0.37	0	14%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	0	0.27	0	7%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	1	0.49	0	23%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.4	2	0.51	0	9%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.4	0	0.41	0	8%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.3	0	0.36	0	15%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.3	0	0.34	0	6%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	1	0.28	0	12%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.2	0	0.40	0	13%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	1	0.24	0	10%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	0	0.27	0	5%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	0.9	0	0.23	0	6%	0
CAR W. Carrier	0.9	1	0.20	0	9%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.9	0	0.25	0	12%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.8	0	0.26	0	12%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.8	0	0.18	0	8%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.8	1	0.13	0	3%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.4	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.