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Game Recap
CAR4
WSH5
WSH beat CAR 5-4 in a shootout, with the chances close: 4.33 expected goals to 4.06. S. Jarvis led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Blake had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. C. Lindgren stopped 30 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| WSH | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 5:42CARL. Stankoven0.17 xG
- 1st 7:14CARJ. Blake0.16 xG
- 1st 18:06WSHP. DuboisPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 10:50WSHD. StromePP0.31 xG
- 2nd 16:51WSHN. Dowd0.48 xG
- 2nd 17:29WSHT. Wilson0.43 xG
- 3rd 4:42CARJ. Martinook0.02 xG
- 3rd 18:15CARS. Jarvis0.21 xG
Team Stats
CARWSH
34Shots on goal28
4.06Expected goals4.33
84Shot attempts55
265v5 shots on goal23
0/1Power play2/3
12Hits31
12Blocked shots21
11Penalty minutes7
16Giveaways24
2Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 4.06 xGWSH 4.33 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:38 | 1:10 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:46 | 1:10 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:02 | 1:10 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:50 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:50 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:50 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:09 | 1:10 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:50 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 22:16 | 1:10 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 19:26 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:15 | 0:00 |
| S. Morrow | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 | 0:50 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 64:41 | OT loss |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dubois | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:06 | 2:14 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:05 | 2:46 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:46 | 0:00 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:54 | 4:09 |
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:55 | 4:04 |
| N. Dowd | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:42 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:41 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 27:29 | 1:11 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:55 | 2:58 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 16:31 | 0:00 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 34 | 30 | 4 | .882 | 65:00 | Win |
| H. Shepard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.1, WSH 3.0 | CAR 4, WSH 5 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 29.1, WSH 25.2 | CAR 34, WSH 28 |
| Win chance | CAR 51% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.1 | 2 | 0.87 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.4 | 2 | 0.71 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.0 | 4 | 0.67 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| CAR B. Burns | 1.9 | 0 | 0.36 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.9 | 5 | 0.46 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 1.8 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR S. Morrow | 1.8 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.7 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.7 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.7 | 4 | 0.67 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.6 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 4 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.3 | 4 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.3 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 0.9 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.8 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.