Game Recap: CBJ 2, ANA 4, November 10, 2024

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Game Recap

CBJ2

FinalSun, Nov 10, 2024Every game that night

ANA4

ANA beat CBJ 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.40 expected goals to 3.03. CBJ outshot ANA 40 to 30. K. Marchenko led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). Z. Werenski had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. J. Gibson stopped 38 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	1	0	1	2
ANA	1	1	2	4

1st 3:13ANAB. Leason0.14 xG
1st 16:16CBJE. ChinakhovPP0.06 xG
2nd 4:22ANAJ. LaCombe0.21 xG
3rd 10:20ANAL. Carlsson0.17 xG
3rd 16:57CBJK. Marchenko0.21 xG
3rd 18:20ANAI. LundestromEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

CBJANA

40Shots on goal30

3.03Expected goals4.40

83Shot attempts60

305v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/2

18Hits20

16Blocked shots21

4Penalty minutes4

8Giveaways16

8Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.03 xGANA 4.40 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ38 on goal, 2 scored

ANA30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	1	1	2	5	2	0	0	0	21:07	1:44
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	0	1	7	4	0	-1	0	19:45	1:45
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:39	0:44
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	4	1	2	-1	0	20:27	1:43
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	19:07	1:42
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	16:13	0:47
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	2	13:10	0:45
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	12:13	0:00
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	11:54	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:33	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	8:22	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	8:14	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	8	0	3	-1	0	27:57	1:41
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	24:42	0:46
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	21:22	0:48
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	15:49	0:00
J. Johnson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	14:01	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	12:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	29	26	3	.897	58:07	Loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Vatrano	RW	0	1	1	3	4	3	+2	0	21:47	2:37
T. Terry	RW	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	20:49	2:34
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	15:57	1:27
L. Carlsson	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:44	2:35
I. Lundestrom	C	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	15:04	0:00
B. McGinn	LW	0	1	1	0	4	3	0	0	13:20	0:00
B. Leason	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	10:23	0:00
C. Gauthier	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	9:30	1:22
R. Johnston	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	7:58	0:00
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	22:05	2:39
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	15:01	1:21
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:46	1:24
R. Gudas	D	0	1	1	1	5	2	+1	0	22:18	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	21:52	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	21:09	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+2	0	22:14	1:25
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:52	2:36
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	40	38	2	.950	60:00	Win
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.2, ANA 3.3	CBJ 2, ANA 4
Total goals	6.6	6
Shots on goal	CBJ 31.7, ANA 30.7	CBJ 40, ANA 30
Win chance	ANA 51%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA F. Vatrano	3.3	3	0.74	1	33%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	8	0.84	1	17%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.4	5	0.63	2	28%	1
ANA T. Terry	2.4	4	0.91	1	33%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.4	0	0.59	0	21%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	2.4	3	0.45	1	15%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.4	0	0.70	0	24%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.4	4	0.51	0	18%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	2.4	7	0.57	1	22%	1
ANA T. Zegras	2.2	1	0.72	0	25%	0
ANA A. Killorn	2.1	0	0.69	0	28%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	2.0	2	0.43	0	10%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.0	1	0.58	1	24%	1
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	1	0.44	0	20%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.8	1	0.58	1	19%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.7	1	0.59	0	28%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.7	2	0.47	0	19%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.6	1	0.50	0	12%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	1	0.42	0	9%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.5	3	0.47	0	9%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.4	1	0.38	0	14%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.3	1	0.26	0	13%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	1	0.26	1	5%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.2	1	0.32	0	13%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	1.2	2	0.28	1	5%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.2	1	0.29	1	14%	1
CBJ J. Christiansen	1.2	0	0.25	0	4%	0
ANA B. McGinn	1.1	0	0.28	1	15%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.1	3	0.25	0	12%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	1.0	1	0.20	0	10%	0
ANA U. Vaakanainen	1.0	0	0.22	0	2%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.9	3	0.29	1	14%	1
ANA J. LaCombe	0.9	3	0.26	1	4%	1
CBJ J. Johnson	0.8	2	0.14	0	3%	0
CBJ J. Harris	0.7	2	0.21	0	5%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.6	1	0.15	1	6%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.