Game Recap: CBJ 5, BOS 1, November 18, 2024

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Game Recap

CBJ5

FinalMon, Nov 18, 2024Every game that night

BOS1

CBJ beat BOS 5-1, with the chances close: 2.46 expected goals to 2.83. S. Monahan led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). S. Monahan had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. E. Merzlikins stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	3	0	2	5
BOS	0	1	0	1

1st 5:17CBJD. Voronkov0.11 xG
1st 10:39CBJM. OlivierSH0.25 xG
1st 19:28CBJJ. van Riemsdyk0.19 xG
2nd 14:30BOSC. CoylePP0.15 xG
3rd 7:19CBJJ. DanforthSH0.19 xG
3rd 14:10CBJE. Chinakhov0.11 xG

Team Stats

CBJBOS

28Shots on goal29

2.46Expected goals2.83

45Shot attempts65

235v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play1/6

22Hits13

21Blocked shots10

19Penalty minutes11

16Giveaways17

1Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.46 xGBOS 2.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ28 on goal, 5 scored

BOS29 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Monahan	C	0	2	2	5	2	0	+2	0	18:49	2:33
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	17:12	0:00
J. Danforth	RW	1	0	1	1	3	2	+1	0	16:31	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	2	5	1	+2	0	15:18	2:34
D. Voronkov	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	2	13:41	2:18
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	12:44	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	9	12:19	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	9:56	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	+2	2	15:53	2:34
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	14:06	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:19	0:00
K. Labanc	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	10:45	0:01
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	2	25:44	2:34
D. Fabbro	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+2	2	22:09	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	+3	0	26:47	0:16
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+4	2	25:07	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:02	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	1	0	1	4	2	1	-2	0	16:43	2:06
J. Brazeau	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-3	0	13:12	2:15
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	20:30	7:40
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	20:20	7:27
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	17:56	7:36
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	17:27	7:13
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:36	0:31
G. Merkulov	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-3	0	15:20	2:00
T. Johnson	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	14:29	0:11
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:53	0:02
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	10:58	1:49
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	7	8:29	0:02
M. Lohrei	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-4	0	16:55	2:08
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	4	24:40	7:40
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:59	0:34
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:55	0:36
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:53	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	-2	0	15:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	28	23	5	.821	59:24	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCharlie Coyle CBJ Faces BOS, his team until Mar 20251 G, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.8, BOS 3.4	CBJ 5, BOS 1
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	CBJ 30.1, BOS 30.3	CBJ 28, BOS 29
Win chance	BOS 60%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.5	0	1.37	0	49%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.9	3	0.67	1	13%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.5	3	0.94	0	31%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	3	0.56	0	25%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.3	5	0.61	2	21%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.2	2	0.49	1	18%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.2	1	0.40	1	15%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	2.1	1	0.46	1	18%	1
BOS P. Zacha	2.1	0	0.79	0	25%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	1	0.40	1	18%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	2.0	2	0.72	0	27%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.9	3	0.67	0	13%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.8	3	0.49	1	23%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.7	1	0.39	1	16%	1
BOS M. Geekie	1.7	3	0.52	0	20%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.6	4	0.61	1	23%	1
BOS N. Zadorov	1.6	1	0.38	0	11%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.6	2	0.49	0	21%	0
BOS T. Johnson	1.5	3	0.47	0	19%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	0	0.39	0	10%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.3	3	0.24	0	12%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.3	3	0.32	1	12%	1
BOS B. Carlo	1.3	0	0.25	0	7%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.2	1	0.30	0	6%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.2	0	0.42	1	9%	0
CBJ K. Labanc	1.2	0	0.30	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	2	0.18	1	4%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.1	1	0.25	1	10%	1
CBJ J. Christiansen	1.1	0	0.19	0	3%	0
BOS G. Merkulov	1.1	2	0.32	0	13%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.0	1	0.22	0	10%	0
BOS J. Oesterle	1.0	1	0.19	0	4%	0
BOS J. Viel	1.0	0	0.18	0	11%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.8	0	0.28	0	14%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.8	2	0.17	0	4%	0
CBJ D.Jiricek	0.7	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.