Game Recap: CBJ 0, BUF 5, April 9, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ0

FinalThu, Apr 9, 2026Every game that night

BUF5

BUF beat CBJ 5-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.04 expected goals to 3.64. CBJ outshot BUF 37 to 24. J. Doan led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). I. Provorov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. C. Ellis stopped 37 of 37.

Team Stats

CBJBUF

37Shots on goal24

3.64Expected goals2.04

80Shot attempts45

245v5 shots on goal22

0/4Power play0/2

18Hits15

9Blocked shots20

4Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways10

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.64 xGBUF 2.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ37 on goal, 0 scored

BUF23 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	0	6	0	-4	0	23:04	6:53
K. Marchenko	RW	2	0	0	-1	0	21:58	6:55
A. Fantilli	C	5	2	2	-2	2	21:25	6:53
M. Marchment	LW	3	2	0	-2	0	17:56	6:57
S. Monahan	C	1	0	0	-1	0	15:25	1:26
C. Sillinger	C	1	1	0	-2	0	13:37	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	13:29	0:00
B. Jenner	C	3	5	0	-1	0	12:50	0:00
C. Garland	RW	4	0	0	-1	2	12:39	1:17
D. Heinen	LW	1	1	0	0	0	11:39	0:00
M. Wood	LW	1	0	0	-1	0	10:22	0:00
K. Johnson	C	2	0	0	-1	0	9:18	1:07
Z. Werenski	D	5	0	0	-3	0	28:46	7:01
I. Provorov	D	5	0	0	-4	0	24:41	2:28
D. Mateychuk	D	4	0	1	-1	0	18:06	1:03
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	2	0	0	16:30	0:00
E. Gudbranson	D	0	1	3	-2	0	15:46	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	1	0	0	10:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	23	19	4	.826	57:52	Loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Doan	RW	2	0	2	4	0	1	+3	0	14:42	2:08
J. Norris	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+3	0	14:36	2:32
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	2	15:39	1:30
J. Quinn	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	14:48	1:52
P. Krebs	C	1	0	1	1	4	1	+1	0	14:35	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:18	2:30
T. Kozak	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	9:38	0:00
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	21:16	1:20
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	2	16:47	2:38
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	15:53	1:28
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	12:00	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	11:30	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	0	16:19	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	+2	0	19:47	2:45
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	+2	0	21:03	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	+3	2	20:11	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	19:32	1:15
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:26	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ellis	37	37	0	1.000	60:00	Win
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko14:55A. Fantilli14:24I. Lundestrom11:47

Line 2C. Coyle13:48C. Sillinger13:37D. Heinen11:39

Line 3C. Garland11:22M. Marchment10:51B. Jenner10:30

Line 4M. Wood10:22S. Monahan12:17K. Johnson8:11

Pair 1Z. Werenski20:54D. Fabbro14:50

Pair 2I. Provorov19:46D. Mateychuk16:04

Pair 3E. Gudbranson13:26E. Zamula10:37

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson14:01P. Krebs14:19A. Tuch14:08

Line 2J. Zucker11:48R. McLeod13:00J. Quinn12:56

Line 3J. Norris11:52J. Doan12:25Z. Benson12:25

Line 4B. Malenstyn8:47T. Kozak9:14J. Greenway8:25

Pair 1B. Byram16:25O. Power18:45

Pair 2M. Samuelsson15:49R. Dahlin15:11

Pair 3L. Stanley15:38Z. Metsa14:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.2, BUF 3.3	CBJ 0, BUF 5
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	CBJ 27.7, BUF 28.7	CBJ 37, BUF 24
Win chance	BUF 52%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	5	0.98	0	20%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	2	0.99	0	40%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.7	2	0.84	0	31%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	5	0.76	0	30%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	3	0.90	1	22%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.4	3	0.68	1	23%	1
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	2	0.75	0	30%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.2	0	0.69	1	27%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.0	3	0.51	0	23%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	2.0	3	0.70	0	26%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.8	0	0.65	0	22%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.7	4	0.46	2	19%	2
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	1	0.55	0	20%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.6	1	0.64	2	27%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	1	0.40	0	14%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.6	1	0.48	1	15%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.6	4	0.43	0	17%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	5	0.34	0	8%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	2	0.36	0	9%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	0	0.47	0	13%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	2	0.38	0	10%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.2	2	0.37	0	14%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.2	1	0.23	0	11%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	0	0.61	0	18%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	1	0.40	1	12%	1
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	4	0.37	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.1	1	0.32	0	15%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.1	1	0.21	2	6%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	0	0.22	0	7%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.0	0	0.20	0	4%	0
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.18	0	8%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.8	0	0.20	0	6%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	2	0.14	1	9%	0
CBJ E. Zamula	0.5	0	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.