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Game Recap
CBJ4
CAR7
CAR beat CBJ 7-4, and the chances backed it up: 5.64 expected goals to 1.28. CAR outshot CBJ 43 to 22. S. Jarvis led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). S. Aho had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. F. Andersen stopped 18 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| CAR | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
- 1st 7:08CBJK. Johnson0.05 xG
- 1st 9:48CBJK. Marchenko0.21 xG
- 2nd 2:48CARS. JarvisPP0.23 xG
- 2nd 7:11CARE. Robinson0.19 xG
- 2nd 7:58CARJ. Blake0.03 xG
- 2nd 8:33CARS. Aho0.09 xG
- 2nd 11:34CARJ. Martinook0.19 xG
- 2nd 13:21CBJJ. van Riemsdyk0.14 xG
- 2nd 14:43CBJD. Voronkov0.06 xG
- 3rd 11:13CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.18 xG
- 3rd 18:08CARS. JarvisEN0.70 xG
Team Stats
CBJCAR
22Shots on goal43
1.28Expected goals5.64
36Shot attempts85
205v5 shots on goal38
0/2Power play1/3
22Hits16
21Blocked shots6
6Penalty minutes4
18Giveaways14
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 1.28 xGCAR 5.64 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:43 | 2:24 |
| K. Johnson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:45 | 2:23 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:50 | 1:18 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:27 | 2:34 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:41 | 2:02 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:27 | 1:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:35 | 0:57 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 26:33 | 2:35 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:47 | 0:53 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 21:29 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17:10 | 0:49 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Harris | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 42 | 36 | 6 | .857 | 58:39 | Loss |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | RW | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:06 | 3:32 |
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 | 3:31 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:28 | 3:49 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:18 | 0:31 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:36 | 3:37 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:21 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:30 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Jaaska | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:48 | 0:17 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:24 | 0:17 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:03 | 3:45 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.5, CAR 3.7 | CBJ 4, CAR 7 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 25.0, CAR 34.2 | CBJ 22, CAR 43 |
| Win chance | CAR 69% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 2.8 | 4 | 0.72 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.7 | 7 | 1.15 | 3 | 38% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.7 | 2 | 0.90 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.5 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 5 | 0.89 | 4 | 33% | 2 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.5 | 4 | 0.90 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.0 | 2 | 0.53 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.8 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.7 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.7 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.7 | 2 | 0.39 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 3 | 0.51 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.51 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.6 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.5 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Belluz | 1.4 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.4 | 3 | 0.39 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Jaaska | 0.7 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.4 | 1 | 0.07 | 2 | 1% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Harris | 0.3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.