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Game Recap
CBJ1
CAR5
CAR beat CBJ 5-1, with the chances close: 2.07 expected goals to 1.57. CAR outshot CBJ 21 to 10. L. Stankoven led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Walker had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. F. Andersen stopped 9 of 10.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| CAR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 2:27CARL. Stankoven0.06 xG
- 1st 8:52CARL. Stankoven0.09 xG
- 1st 12:50CARA. NikishinSH0.08 xG
- 2nd 11:24CBJD. Mateychuk0.31 xG
- 2nd 11:37CARJ. Martinook0.01 xG
- 3rd 6:44CARA. SvechnikovPP0.11 xG
Team Stats
CBJCAR
10Shots on goal21
1.57Expected goals2.07
46Shot attempts52
95v5 shots on goal17
0/3Power play1/2
18Hits19
14Blocked shots19
6Penalty minutes8
17Giveaways18
8Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 1.57 xGCAR 2.07 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:04 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:40 | 2:24 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:15 | 2:32 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:06 | 2:24 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:30 | 2:31 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:22 | 3:00 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 2:03 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:01 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:38 | 2:37 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:29 | 2:29 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:12 | 3:26 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:33 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 20:08 | 1:34 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:22 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 21 | 16 | 5 | .762 | 59:53 | Loss |
| J. Greaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:30 | 1:48 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:19 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:22 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 1:49 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:17 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:42 | 1:43 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:28 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:56 | 1:48 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 21:45 | 0:04 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16:21 | 1:47 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:23 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 22:51 | 0:02 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 10 | 9 | 1 | .900 | 60:00 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CBJ
Line 1K. Marchenko12:40A. Fantilli12:33L. Belluz11:15
Line 2M. Wood12:06I. Lundestrom13:31B. Jenner13:30
Line 3S. Monahan8:46K. Johnson10:22D. Heinen12:57
Line 4C. Coyle14:33C. Garland11:59C. Sillinger14:21
Pair 1I. Provorov16:09E. Zamula16:12
Pair 2Z. Werenski16:09D. Fabbro19:13
Pair 3E. Gudbranson16:04D. Mateychuk16:15
CAR
Line 1L. Stankoven13:53J. Blake14:15T. Hall13:28
Line 2J. Staal13:14J. Martinook11:44N. Ehlers13:12
Line 3S. Jarvis12:10S. Aho11:56A. Svechnikov12:03
Line 4M. Jankowski10:21E. Robinson11:15W. Carrier10:58
Pair 2J. Slavin15:57J. Chatfield16:28
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere13:33A. Nikishin14:21
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.8, CAR 3.5 | CBJ 1, CAR 5 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 23.8, CAR 32.7 | CBJ 10, CAR 21 |
| Win chance | CAR 62% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.9 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 2.7 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.6 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.4 | 1 | 0.93 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.4 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.3 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.2 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.1 | 5 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 4 | 0.48 | 2 | 19% | 2 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.9 | 1 | 0.58 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.9 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 1.8 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.6 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.6 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Garland | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Wood | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Heinen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Belluz | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 0.7 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| CBJ E. Zamula | 0.3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 13 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.7 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.