Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CBJ0
CGY3
CGY beat CBJ 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.50 expected goals to 1.42. M. Backlund led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). K. Bahl had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. D. Vladar stopped 16 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 2nd 10:14CGYR. AnderssonPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 17:53CGYK. BahlPP0.04 xG
- 3rd 19:40CGYY. SharangovichEN0.71 xG
Team Stats
CBJCGY
16Shots on goal22
1.42Expected goals3.50
48Shot attempts63
125v5 shots on goal16
0/1Power play2/4
19Hits21
19Blocked shots14
8Penalty minutes2
12Giveaways12
2Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 1.42 xGCGY 3.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:29 | 0:34 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:33 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:50 | 1:29 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:34 | 1:26 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:11 | 1:26 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:05 | 1:27 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:34 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:31 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 29:01 | 1:32 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 25:12 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:35 | 0:28 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Harris | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 58:56 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:14 | 4:02 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:49 | 4:01 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 | 2:07 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:56 | 2:09 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:38 | 3:11 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:36 | 4:02 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 2:07 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 1:33 |
| W. Duehr | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:24 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:40 | 2:20 |
| R. Andersson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:37 | 3:51 |
| K. Bahl | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:29 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | 0:58 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.2, CGY 3.5 | CBJ 0, CGY 3 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 30.9, CGY 34.0 | CBJ 16, CGY 22 |
| Win chance | CGY 55% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.3 | 3 | 0.93 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 2.9 | 4 | 0.82 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.7 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.6 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.6 | 1 | 0.61 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.4 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.3 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.2 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.2 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.0 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.0 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.9 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.9 | 1 | 0.84 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.8 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.7 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.5 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.1 | 4 | 0.27 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| CGY W. Duehr | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Harris | 0.5 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.