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Game Recap
CBJ0
FinalTue, Dec 3, 2024Every game that night
CGY3

CGY beat CBJ 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.50 expected goals to 1.42. M. Backlund led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). K. Bahl had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. D. Vladar stopped 16 of 16.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CBJ0000
CGY0123
  1. 2nd 10:14CGYR. AnderssonPP0.06 xG
  2. 3rd 17:53CGYK. BahlPP0.04 xG
  3. 3rd 19:40CGYY. SharangovichEN0.71 xG

Team Stats

CBJCGY
16Shots on goal22
1.42Expected goals3.50
48Shot attempts63
125v5 shots on goal16
0/1Power play2/4
19Hits21
19Blocked shots14
8Penalty minutes2
12Giveaways12
2Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 1.42 xGCGY 3.50 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdCGY goal, 10:14CGY goal, 17:53CGY goal, 19:40

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ16 on goal, 0 scored
CGY22 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. FantilliC000120-1218:290:34
C. SillingerC0002110017:500:33
D. VoronkovLW000111-1016:501:29
K. MarchenkoRW000100-1016:341:26
S. MonahanC000100-1016:111:26
K. JohnsonC000101-1016:051:27
J. DanforthRW0001310213:500:00
M. OlivierRW0000020013:140:00
K. LabancRW0001110012:380:34
Z. Aston-ReeseLW0000410011:500:00
J. van RiemsdykLW0001100011:310:31
S. KuralyC0000500011:290:00
Z. WerenskiD000402-1029:011:32
D. FabbroD0001050425:120:00
I. ProvorovD0001020023:350:28
D. SeversonD0000020022:310:00
J. HarrisD000010009:330:00
J. ChristiansenD000000008:310:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
E. Merzlikins21192.90558:56Loss
D. Tarasov000–0:00

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. BacklundC022100+1020:144:02
N. KadriC0113100021:494:01
J. HuberdeauLW0111010019:082:07
Y. SharangovichC101100+1017:562:09
B. ColemanLW011331+1016:383:11
M. PospisilC0003100019:364:02
M. CoronatoRW0001100016:482:07
C. ZaryC0001200014:071:33
W. DuehrRW0000310011:040:00
K. RooneyC000020008:240:00
J. PelletierLW000101008:240:00
R. LombergLW000011008:090:00
M. WeegarD0111430023:402:20
R. AnderssonD101101+1221:373:51
K. BahlD101403+1018:480:29
D. MiromanovD0000010019:270:58
B. PachalD0000210016:550:00
J. BeanD0001100015:160:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Vladar161601.00060:00Win
D. Wolf000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCBJ 3.2, CGY 3.5CBJ 0, CGY 3
Total goals6.73
Shots on goalCBJ 30.9, CGY 34.0CBJ 16, CGY 22
Win chanceCGY 55%CGY won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CGY N. Kadri3.330.93132%0
CBJ Z. Werenski2.940.82015%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich2.710.76132%1
CGY M. Weegar2.610.62113%0
CGY M. Backlund2.610.61222%0
CBJ K. Marchenko2.410.66028%0
CGY B. Coleman2.330.62127%0
CGY M. Coronato2.210.52022%0
CBJ S. Monahan2.210.71023%0
CBJ C. Sillinger2.220.48016%0
CGY R. Andersson2.110.62112%1
CBJ D. Voronkov2.010.54023%0
CBJ A. Fantilli2.010.53020%0
CGY M. Pospisil1.930.51016%0
CGY J. Huberdeau1.910.84124%0
CGY C. Zary1.810.60023%0
CBJ K. Johnson1.810.60020%0
CGY D. Miromanov1.700.2908%0
CBJ J. Danforth1.610.41017%0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese1.500.28013%0
CBJ D. Severson1.400.45010%0
CBJ D. Fabbro1.410.2806%0
CBJ I. Provorov1.310.3607%0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk1.210.34013%0
CBJ M. Olivier1.200.31013%0
CGY J. Pelletier1.210.26011%0
CGY B. Pachal1.200.1403%0
CBJ K. Labanc1.210.32011%0
CGY K. Bahl1.140.2714%1
CGY W. Duehr1.000.29013%0
CGY J. Bean1.010.2506%0
CBJ S. Kuraly1.000.22010%0
CGY K. Rooney0.900.1709%0
CGY R. Lomberg0.900.16010%0
CBJ J. Christiansen0.700.1502%0
CBJ J. Harris0.500.1403%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.