Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CBJ6
CHI3
CBJ beat CHI 6-3, with the chances close: 2.16 expected goals to 2.34. D. Severson led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). A. Vlasic had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. E. Merzlikins stopped 28 of 31.
Team Stats
CBJCHI
36Shots on goal31
2.16Expected goals2.34
53Shot attempts51
305v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play3/6
30Hits21
11Blocked shots8
27Penalty minutes9
14Giveaways11
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 2.16 xGCHI 2.34 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Monahan | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:04 | 2:16 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:18 | 1:02 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 2 | 18:17 | 2:16 |
| K. Johnson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:37 | 2:14 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 17 | 11:59 | 1:12 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:00 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:35 | 1:01 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:56 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:56 | 1:01 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:17 | 1:09 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 24:09 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 26:01 | 2:17 |
| I. Provorov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:55 | 1:01 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 23:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Harris | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 23:17 | 5:25 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:17 | 1:31 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:49 | 2:08 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:33 | 4:55 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:34 | 3:31 |
| C. Smith | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:15 | 1:54 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:03 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:06 | 4:42 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:03 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 2:20 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:00 | 2:13 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:54 | 3:36 |
| A. Martinez | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 23:22 | 3:40 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 5 | 18:25 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 16:05 | 0:29 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:06 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:14 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Mrazek | 35 | 30 | 5 | .857 | 59:10 | Loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.4, CHI 3.0 | CBJ 6, CHI 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 32.3, CHI 29.0 | CBJ 36, CHI 31 |
| Win chance | CBJ 56% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.1 | 2 | 0.84 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.7 | 5 | 0.91 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.6 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.4 | 4 | 0.61 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.3 | 3 | 0.74 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.3 | 3 | 0.49 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.3 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| CHI T. Hall | 2.3 | 0 | 0.68 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.2 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 5 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.8 | 0 | 0.66 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.8 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.7 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI C. Smith | 1.7 | 5 | 0.40 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.7 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.7 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 1.4 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 3 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI A. Martinez | 1.3 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.2 | 6 | 0.32 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.9 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.6 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Harris | 0.6 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.