Game Recap: CBJ 6, COL 4, October 12, 2024

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Game Recap

CBJ6

FinalSat, Oct 12, 2024Every game that night

COL4

CBJ beat COL 6-4 despite fewer good chances: 3.14 expected goals to 4.25. E. Chinakhov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Sillinger had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. D. Tarasov stopped 26 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	2	3	1	6
COL	1	2	1	4

1st 6:38CBJZ. Werenski0.22 xG
1st 7:45CBJK. Johnson0.04 xG
1st 19:52COLN. MacKinnonPP0.26 xG
2nd 1:56CBJA. Fantilli0.03 xG
2nd 2:11COLM. Wood0.21 xG
2nd 3:42COLC. MittelstadtPP0.48 xG
2nd 4:33CBJK. Marchenko0.07 xG
2nd 9:49CBJE. Chinakhov0.09 xG
3rd 18:40COLR. Colton0.15 xG
3rd 19:48CBJS. MonahanEN0.87 xG

Team Stats

CBJCOL

23Shots on goal30

3.14Expected goals4.25

45Shot attempts71

205v5 shots on goal23

1/3Power play2/4

9Hits27

19Blocked shots13

10Penalty minutes18

13Giveaways11

8Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.14 xGCOL 4.25 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ22 on goal, 6 scored

COL29 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Monahan	C	1	2	3	2	0	0	+2	0	20:20	1:30
K. Marchenko	RW	1	2	3	2	0	0	+2	0	18:11	1:21
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	2	3	4	1	1	+2	0	17:57	2:26
K. Johnson	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	21:30	1:17
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	2	1	3	0	0	16:53	1:48
K. Labanc	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	10:54	0:57
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	+1	2	20:05	1:15
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	19:08	0:12
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:00	1:44
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:17	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	2	9:16	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:34	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	23:12	2:37
D. Severson	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	4	21:45	1:45
J. Christiansen	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	17:17	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	25:55	0:27
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	16:54	0:21
J. Johnson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	30	26	4	.867	60:00	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	10	23:23	3:58
R. Colton	C	1	1	2	3	2	1	-1	0	18:48	3:41
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	2	24:04	3:57
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	0	1	2	0	3	-1	2	22:35	3:57
M. Wood	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	12:24	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	-1	0	12:12	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	9:41	0:49
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	16:04	0:00
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	15:10	0:35
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:50	0:34
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:09	0:00
C. Wagner	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	6:26	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	23:33	3:38
C. de Haan	D	0	1	1	2	3	3	-1	0	15:35	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	21:57	0:56
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	19:22	0:35
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	2	16:46	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	9	6	3	.667	21:56
J. Annunen	13	11	2	.846	35:53	Loss

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayAdam Fantilli CBJ Turns 20 that day1 G, 2 SOG
BirthdaySean Monahan CBJ Turns 30 that day1 G, 2 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.9, COL 4.4	CBJ 6, COL 4
Total goals	7.3	10
Shots on goal	CBJ 29.0, COL 38.7	CBJ 23, COL 30
Win chance	COL 71%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	6.1	3	1.97	2	51%	1
COL M. Rantanen	4.2	3	1.59	1	49%	0
COL C. Makar	3.9	1	1.43	2	27%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.9	3	0.74	1	13%	1
COL M. Wood	2.7	3	0.43	1	19%	1
COL D. Toews	2.5	2	0.80	0	13%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.4	2	0.49	3	24%	1
COL J. Manson	2.4	1	0.48	0	11%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.3	5	0.43	0	16%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	2.3	2	0.91	1	25%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	2.2	2	0.63	3	22%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.1	2	0.49	1	18%	1
COL R. Colton	2.1	3	0.58	2	24%	1
CBJ E. Chinakhov	2.0	4	0.44	3	17%	1
COL S. Girard	1.7	0	0.50	0	7%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.7	1	0.44	0	17%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.6	2	0.44	1	15%	1
COL P. Kelly	1.6	1	0.29	1	14%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.6	0	0.38	0	14%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.6	1	0.41	0	8%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.5	0	0.30	0	14%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	1.4	0	0.25	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.4	1	0.44	1	10%	0
CBJ K. Labanc	1.3	1	0.27	1	11%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	0	0.27	0	10%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.3	0	0.27	0	5%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.2	1	0.33	0	6%	0
COL C. Haan	1.2	2	0.20	1	5%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	0	0.22	0	10%	0
COL C. Wagner	1.1	1	0.16	0	9%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.8	0	0.13	0	2%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.8	0	0.15	1	3%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	0.8	0	0.13	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.