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Game Recap
CBJ5
DAL1
CBJ beat DAL 5-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.53 expected goals to 3.19. A. Fantilli led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Petrovic had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. E. Merzlikins stopped 22 of 23.
Team Stats
CBJDAL
29Shots on goal23
2.53Expected goals3.19
56Shot attempts45
255v5 shots on goal18
2/2Power play0/2
35Hits21
5Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways17
9Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 2.53 xGDAL 3.19 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Jenner | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:28 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:15 |
| K. Johnson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:18 | 1:57 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 1:41 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 | 2:00 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:31 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 1:44 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:00 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:11 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:12 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:10 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 23:43 | 0:10 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:56 | 2:02 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Greaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Seguin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:20 | 0:50 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| A. Erne | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:13 | 3:12 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:37 | 3:10 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 | 0:23 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:41 | 3:37 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:00 | 0:48 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:14 | 3:07 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:32 | 3:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:59 | 0:55 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:58 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 58:16 | Loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CBJ
Line 1M. Olivier16:03C. Sillinger16:10C. Coyle14:05
Line 2K. Marchenko15:02D. Voronkov13:43S. Monahan13:16
Line 3B. Jenner12:45A. Fantilli12:08K. Johnson11:00
Line 4Z. Aston-Reese10:17I. Lundestrom12:14E. Chinakhov8:53
Pair 1D. Severson19:40I. Provorov20:24
Pair 2D. Mateychuk18:50Z. Werenski18:05
Pair 3D. Fabbro15:39J. Christiansen12:06
DAL
Line 1J. Robertson15:17M. Bourque16:43W. Johnston14:00
Line 2M. Rantanen13:20R. Hintz13:01S. Steel16:13
Line 3R. Faksa9:26N. Bastian8:33J. Hryckowian10:04
Line 4T. Seguin14:46C. Blackwell13:16A. Erne11:24
Pair 1E. Lindell18:00M. Heiskanen18:48
Pair 2A. Petrovic18:00L. Bichsel16:58
Pair 3T. Harley18:32I. Lyubushkin13:59
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.1, DAL 3.5 | CBJ 5, DAL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 30.1, DAL 29.5 | CBJ 29, DAL 23 |
| Win chance | DAL 56% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.4 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 3.0 | 1 | 1.25 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.9 | 3 | 1.08 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.6 | 3 | 0.88 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.6 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.4 | 2 | 0.94 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.3 | 2 | 0.58 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.3 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.2 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.2 | 3 | 0.59 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.1 | 1 | 0.71 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.9 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.8 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.59 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.5 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL N. Bastian | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 0.7 | 4 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.6 | 2 | 0.08 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.