Game Recap: CBJ 5, DET 2, February 27, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ5

FinalThu, Feb 27, 2025Every game that night

DET2

CBJ beat DET 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.82 expected goals to 2.76. B. Jenner led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). B. Jenner had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. D. Tarasov stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	0	4	1	5
DET	0	2	0	2

2nd 0:27DETA. DeBrincat0.15 xG
2nd 4:16CBJJ. van Riemsdyk0.21 xG
2nd 9:43CBJS. Kuraly0.38 xG
2nd 12:08CBJK. Johnson0.06 xG
2nd 15:01CBJJ. van Riemsdyk0.23 xG
2nd 16:39DETJ. CompherPP0.22 xG
3rd 19:03CBJK. MarchenkoEN0.77 xG

Team Stats

CBJDET

30Shots on goal31

5.82Expected goals2.76

70Shot attempts54

245v5 shots on goal23

0/2Power play1/3

16Hits14

10Blocked shots9

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways13

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 5.82 xGDET 2.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ30 on goal, 5 scored

DET31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Jenner	C	0	3	3	7	0	1	+3	0	18:02	0:48
K. Johnson	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	16:31	2:54
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	2	0	2	2	1	1	+2	0	11:38	0:48
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	23:15	2:54
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	20:45	2:54
M. Olivier	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	17:28	0:48
S. Kuraly	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	2	12:46	0:00
J. LaBate	C	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	0	9:45	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:40	2:49
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:10	0:00
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:03	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2:54	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+3	0	24:32	0:02
J. Christiansen	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+2	0	10:36	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+3	0	26:47	2:54
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	22:22	0:53
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:35	0:46
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	12:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Compher	LW	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	0	18:59	0:58
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	6	2	0	0	2	20:39	2:52
J. Berggren	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	12:06	0:35
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:33	2:48
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	16:44	2:50
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	16:04	2:52
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	14:29	0:24
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	14:03	1:01
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:49	0:53
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	12:44	0:00
C. Fischer	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	12:39	0:00
T. Motte	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	11:58	0:00
E. Gustafsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	16:44	1:13
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	26:08	2:36
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	0	0	22:19	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	21:09	0:03
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	15:40	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	29	25	4	.862	57:10	Loss
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCam Talbot CBJ First game back in Detroit, his team until Apr 202625 saves on 29
Old teamDaniil Tarasov DET Faces CBJ, his team until Apr 202529 saves on 31, the win
HometownZach Werenski CBJ Plays near home (born in Grosse Pointe)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.9, DET 3.4	CBJ 5, DET 2
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	CBJ 27.1, DET 30.0	CBJ 30, DET 31
Win chance	DET 57%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	1	0.92	0	19%	0
DET D. Larkin	3.4	1	1.05	0	37%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	3.0	6	0.90	1	33%	1
DET P. Kane	2.8	2	0.93	0	29%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.6	3	0.70	1	27%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.6	7	0.63	3	29%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.5	2	1.05	0	32%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	4	0.76	1	29%	1
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.5	0	0.72	0	29%	0
DET M. Seider	2.2	1	0.61	0	9%	0
DET M. Kasper	2.2	2	0.59	0	22%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	2.1	2	0.64	0	26%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.1	0	0.46	0	16%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	2.0	2	0.69	2	24%	1
DET E. Soderblom	1.7	2	0.49	0	19%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.7	2	0.25	0	7%	0
DET J. Compher	1.5	2	0.56	2	20%	1
CBJ J. Danforth	1.4	2	0.36	0	16%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	1	0.33	1	15%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	1	0.43	0	9%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.4	2	0.26	0	12%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.3	2	0.42	2	16%	2
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.3	1	0.27	1	6%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	1.2	0	0.35	1	6%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.2	3	0.26	1	12%	1
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	1	0.22	0	7%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.1	2	0.35	1	16%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.1	0	0.33	0	8%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.1	0	0.40	0	11%	0
DET T. Motte	1.1	3	0.18	0	10%	0
DET J. Veleno	1.1	1	0.29	0	13%	0
DET A. Johansson	1.0	1	0.24	0	5%	0
DET C. Fischer	0.9	1	0.23	0	9%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.8	0	0.12	1	2%	0
DET J. Holl	0.5	1	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.