Game Recap: CBJ 3, EDM 6, December 5, 2024

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Game Recap

CBJ3

FinalThu, Dec 5, 2024Every game that night

EDM6

EDM beat CBJ 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.62 expected goals to 1.50. EDM outshot CBJ 36 to 22. C. McDavid led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). C. Pickard stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	1	1	1	3
EDM	1	4	1	6

1st 2:31CBJK. Labanc0.10 xG
1st 9:46EDMZ. Hyman0.21 xG
2nd 2:22EDML. Draisaitl0.16 xG
2nd 4:02EDMM. EkholmPP0.13 xG
2nd 6:53EDMZ. Hyman0.22 xG
2nd 10:02CBJD. Severson0.02 xG
2nd 18:30EDMJ. Skinner0.26 xG
3rd 6:10CBJC. Sillinger0.03 xG
3rd 13:37EDML. DraisaitlPP0.10 xG

Team Stats

CBJEDM

22Shots on goal36

1.50Expected goals3.62

48Shot attempts65

175v5 shots on goal28

0/2Power play2/5

15Hits12

17Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways9

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 1.50 xGEDM 3.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ21 on goal, 3 scored

EDM36 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Sillinger	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	0	17:57	1:00
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	15:33	1:03
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	10:54	0:01
K. Labanc	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	9:44	0:53
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:43	2:56
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:01	2:59
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	+1	0	16:50	2:59
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	4	16:41	2:57
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	14:43	0:01
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	+1	0	14:20	0:53
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:22	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	10:41	0:08
D. Severson	D	1	0	1	3	0	3	0	0	25:22	0:09
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	0	24:51	3:07
J. Christiansen	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	13:10	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	10:44	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	24:43	0:53
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	4	17:52	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	36	30	6	.833	60:00	Loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	4	4	1	0	0	+2	0	20:36	5:10
L. Draisaitl	C	2	0	2	2	1	0	+1	0	21:14	5:10
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	2	2	4	0	0	+1	0	19:57	4:54
Z. Hyman	LW	2	0	2	5	0	0	+3	0	19:05	5:08
A. Henrique	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	16:01	2:28
J. Skinner	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	13:19	2:42
M. Janmark	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	2	11:46	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:21	0:03
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	13:15	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	11:22	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:51	2:41
D. Ryan	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	10:05	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	21:40	5:16
M. Ekholm	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	2	19:27	2:26
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	23:18	2:46
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	4	0	4	0	0	18:21	0:17
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	-1	0	16:23	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:06	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	22	19	3	.864	59:53	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.8, EDM 3.9	CBJ 3, EDM 6
Total goals	6.6	9
Shots on goal	CBJ 26.9, EDM 34.6	CBJ 22, EDM 36
Win chance	EDM 67%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.7	1	1.92	4	46%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.1	5	0.89	2	40%	2
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	2	1.53	2	48%	2
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	2	1.00	2	18%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.8	2	0.77	1	15%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.4	3	0.64	2	28%	1
EDM M. Ekholm	2.4	2	0.56	1	12%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.4	3	0.45	0	11%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.2	1	0.58	0	26%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.2	4	0.95	2	27%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.1	2	0.43	2	15%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	2.0	1	0.62	0	21%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.9	0	0.50	0	22%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	1.9	2	0.49	1	19%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.7	2	0.40	0	14%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	4	0.53	0	19%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.6	0	0.58	2	25%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.6	4	0.36	0	8%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	3	0.35	0	16%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.5	1	0.36	0	16%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.4	1	0.25	0	12%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.3	1	0.38	0	14%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.3	1	0.27	0	6%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.3	1	0.41	0	20%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.3	3	0.41	1	10%	1
CBJ I. Provorov	1.2	1	0.32	0	7%	0
CBJ K. Labanc	1.1	3	0.29	1	10%	1
CBJ M. Olivier	1.1	0	0.28	0	12%	0
EDM T. Emberson	1.1	1	0.24	0	4%	0
EDM T. Stecher	1.0	1	0.17	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	1.0	0	0.38	1	13%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	0.9	0	0.21	0	10%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.9	0	0.15	1	9%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.8	1	0.20	0	10%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	0	0.13	1	2%	0
CBJ J. Harris	0.5	0	0.13	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.