MTL beat CBJ 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.11 expected goals to 1.23. M. Matheson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Fabbro had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. S. Montembeault stopped 25 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| MTL | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
- 1st 4:59MTLM. MathesonPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 7:40CBJD. Fabbro0.06 xG
- 2nd 15:49MTLN. Suzuki0.07 xG
- 3rd 11:04MTLL. Condotta0.20 xG
- 3rd 12:52MTLJ. Evans0.08 xG
- 3rd 15:55MTLJ. Anderson0.12 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 1.23 xGMTL 2.11 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:53 | 1:07 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:50 | 3:09 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:28 | 3:28 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:20 | 3:30 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:54 | 1:57 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 1:26 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:53 | 1:52 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:12 | 3:11 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:46 | 1:03 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:49 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:55 | 1:09 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:32 | 0:45 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26:00 | 4:23 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:02 | 1:17 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:56 | 1:24 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 20:35 | 1:24 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:35 |
| J. Harris | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:43 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 30 | 25 | 5 | .833 | 59:08 | Loss |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:51 | 0:57 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 15:36 | 4:54 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:21 | 4:52 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:04 | 4:53 |
| J. Evans | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:02 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:00 |
| L. Condotta | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:56 | 4:42 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:57 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:55 | 1:01 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:59 | 0:56 |
| M. Matheson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27:12 | 4:47 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:50 | 0:53 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 5 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 21:39 | 0:15 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 13:18 | 0:11 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.3, MTL 3.5 | CBJ 1, MTL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 31.1, MTL 29.4 | CBJ 26, MTL 30 |
| Win chance | MTL 54% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.4 | 2 | 0.88 | 2 | 38% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.2 | 1 | 0.85 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.3 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.3 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 2.3 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.81 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.2 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 2.1 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.0 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.9 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.9 | 0 | 0.43 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.9 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.8 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.6 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Barron | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| MTL L. Condotta | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.0 | 4 | 0.20 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Harris | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.