Game Recap: CBJ 5, NJD 3, December 1, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ5

FinalMon, Dec 1, 2025Every game that night

NJD3

CBJ beat NJD 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.46 expected goals to 3.76. NJD outshot CBJ 33 to 25. C. Coyle led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). L. Hughes had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. E. Merzlikins stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	1	1	3	5
NJD	2	0	1	3

1st 1:26NJDN. HischierPP0.05 xG
1st 3:03NJDO. Palat0.17 xG
1st 9:54CBJD. MateychukPP0.09 xG
2nd 1:28CBJS. Monahan0.22 xG
3rd 6:40CBJC. Coyle0.30 xG
3rd 7:14CBJS. Monahan0.15 xG
3rd 11:51NJDT. MeierPP0.18 xG
3rd 13:31CBJM. Wood0.21 xG

Team Stats

CBJNJD

25Shots on goal33

2.46Expected goals3.76

42Shot attempts64

175v5 shots on goal22

1/3Power play2/5

21Hits23

11Blocked shots11

34Penalty minutes40

15Giveaways14

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.46 xGNJD 3.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ25 on goal, 5 scored

NJD32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	1	2	3	1	0	0	+2	0	20:27	1:20
M. Wood	LW	1	1	2	2	4	1	+3	0	19:30	0:00
S. Monahan	C	2	0	2	2	1	1	+1	4	16:23	2:44
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	0	3	2	0	2	17:00	1:24
I. Lundestrom	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+3	0	16:30	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7	20:53	2:45
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	12:37	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10	12:37	2:48
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:34	1:24
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:17	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:01	0:00
L. Pinelli	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	6:58	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	2	2	1	1	2	+3	2	26:57	3:47
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	1	3	0	+3	0	25:59	0:20
D. Mateychuk	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	-1	0	21:07	0:14
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	18:01	3:54
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	17:15	0:00
B. Smith	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	7	11:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	33	30	3	.909	59:56	Win
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	1	1	2	4	1	0	-2	0	23:51	5:24
J. Bratt	LW	0	2	2	4	0	0	-2	0	23:46	5:37
T. Meier	RW	1	0	1	4	3	1	-2	0	23:45	6:22
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	19:53	5:23
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0	17:56	0:00
O. Palat	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	12:01	0:52
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	13:38	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	12:19	0:08
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	11:06	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	5	10:47	0:00
J. Lammikko	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	9:02	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	5	8:33	0:51
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	29:28	3:10
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	6	0	1	-3	0	25:51	0:54
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	2	21:17	3:19
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:06	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	10:32	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	15	6:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	25	20	5	.800	54:27	Loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1M. Wood13:56I. Lundestrom11:15C. Coyle12:38

Line 2C. Sillinger11:01S. Monahan10:55L. Pinelli6:58

Line 3A. Fantilli14:11D. Voronkov8:27K. Johnson8:01

Line 4B. Gaunce8:44E. Chinakhov8:00Z. Aston-Reese6:48

Pair 1I. Provorov15:30Z. Werenski16:14

Pair 2D. Severson12:46D. Mateychuk13:57

Pair 3B. Smith10:08D. Fabbro12:26

NJD

Line 1T. Meier12:45J. Bratt12:10N. Hischier11:47

Line 2O. Palat9:30A. Gritsyuk12:02D. Mercer8:38

Line 3L. Glendening9:31J. Lammikko9:02S. Noesen7:42

Line 4C. Glass9:36P. Cotter8:33C. Brown9:46

Pair 1L. Hughes19:06S. Nemec19:01

Pair 2B. Dillon8:05D. Cholowski15:56

Pair 3D. Hamilton14:31J. Siegenthaler4:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.1, NJD 3.4	CBJ 5, NJD 3
Total goals	6.5	8
Shots on goal	CBJ 29.1, NJD 31.2	CBJ 25, NJD 33
Win chance	NJD 55%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	3.4	4	0.85	1	36%	1
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	1	0.86	2	17%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.9	3	0.69	0	19%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.6	4	1.05	2	28%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.6	4	0.98	2	34%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.6	3	0.72	0	30%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.4	3	0.45	1	19%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.0	6	0.65	0	10%	0
NJD D. Mercer	2.0	3	0.61	1	27%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.0	2	0.68	2	22%	2
CBJ M. Wood	1.9	2	0.34	2	16%	1
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.9	1	0.58	0	24%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.8	0	0.40	1	15%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.7	1	0.41	1	8%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.6	1	0.48	0	13%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.6	0	0.45	0	18%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	2	0.47	0	18%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.4	1	0.30	0	13%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.4	1	0.47	3	18%	1
NJD S. Noesen	1.3	2	0.35	0	16%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.2	1	0.26	0	12%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	1	0.36	1	15%	1
NJD P. Cotter	1.2	0	0.29	0	15%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.1	2	0.35	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	1	0.34	1	10%	1
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.1	2	0.19	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	2	0.22	0	5%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
CBJ B. Smith	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	0.8	0	0.15	0	7%	0
NJD D. Cholowski	0.8	1	0.23	0	5%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.8	0	0.15	0	8%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.27	0	6%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	2	0.18	1	8%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.14	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.