Game Recap: CBJ 3, NJD 0, February 3, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ3

FinalTue, Feb 3, 2026Every game that night

NJD0

CBJ beat NJD 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.25 expected goals to 2.39. M. Olivier led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). E. Merzlikins stopped 24 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	0	0	3	3
NJD	0	0	0	0

3rd 5:24CBJD. Fabbro0.02 xG
3rd 12:05CBJM. Olivier0.15 xG
3rd 16:00CBJM. OlivierEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

CBJNJD

25Shots on goal24

3.25Expected goals2.39

48Shot attempts51

225v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play0/3

19Hits18

13Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways13

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.25 xGNJD 2.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ26 on goal, 3 scored

NJD23 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Olivier	RW	2	0	2	1	3	0	+2	0	14:09	0:00
C. Coyle	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	16:35	1:50
B. Jenner	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	15:30	0:49
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	14:14	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	17:56	1:56
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	16:43	2:06
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	+2	0	15:54	0:45
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:02	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:54	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	0	11:10	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	10:58	1:08
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	10:42	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	2	23:11	2:02
D. Fabbro	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	14:17	0:12
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	24:38	1:43
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	22:21	0:49
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	17:57	0:55
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	24	24	0	1.000	59:55	Win
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Brown	RW	2	0	1	-2	0	24:10	3:41
N. Hischier	C	3	0	0	-2	2	21:21	4:06
T. Meier	RW	5	1	0	-2	0	20:06	3:41
J. Bratt	LW	1	0	0	-2	0	18:52	4:06
A. Gritsyuk	RW	4	1	1	-1	2	18:06	1:10
C. Glass	C	1	0	0	0	0	14:48	0:00
L. Hameenaho	RW	0	1	0	0	0	14:15	0:45
P. Cotter	LW	0	8	0	-1	0	13:07	0:00
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	-1	0	12:17	0:45
L. Glendening	C	0	1	0	0	0	8:04	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	1	0	1	0	0	7:52	0:45
J. Lammikko	C	0	2	0	0	0	7:13	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	4	0	1	-2	0	23:27	4:06
B. Pesce	D	2	0	2	0	0	19:59	0:25
S. Nemec	D	0	0	3	-1	0	18:30	0:45
B. Dillon	D	1	2	0	0	2	18:15	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	1	-1	0	17:41	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	2	1	-1	0	17:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	25	23	2	.920	58:42	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1M. Marchment14:16A. Fantilli15:32I. Lundestrom12:08

Line 2M. Olivier13:19C. Sillinger11:42C. Coyle10:39

Line 3B. Jenner11:19M. Wood10:23D. Heinen12:00

Line 4D. Voronkov11:10K. Johnson9:50S. Monahan10:41

Pair 1D. Severson20:34Z. Werenski19:52

Pair 2I. Provorov15:27D. Mateychuk15:02

Pair 3E. Gudbranson12:10D. Fabbro12:46

NJD

Line 1C. Brown17:20T. Meier15:21C. Glass13:25

Line 2N. Hischier15:21A. Gritsyuk13:56L. Hameenaho12:59

Line 3D. Mercer9:43P. Cotter12:04J. Bratt11:15

Line 4L. Glendening7:13J. Lammikko7:13M. Tsyplakov7:07

Pair 1D. Hamilton17:23B. Pesce16:30

Pair 2B. Dillon16:02S. Nemec17:20

Pair 3J. Kovacevic14:08J. Siegenthaler14:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.2, NJD 3.4	CBJ 3, NJD 0
Total goals	6.6	3
Shots on goal	CBJ 28.1, NJD 31.4	CBJ 25, NJD 24
Win chance	NJD 53%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	3.5	5	0.74	0	33%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.2	2	0.89	1	18%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	3.0	4	0.65	0	19%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.8	3	0.96	0	34%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.5	2	0.67	0	27%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	1	0.97	0	27%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.3	4	0.49	0	18%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	1.9	0	0.64	0	25%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	1.9	3	0.48	1	21%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.8	2	0.58	0	20%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	0	0.47	0	22%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.7	1	0.62	1	22%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.6	1	0.39	0	16%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	0	0.34	0	7%	0
NJD L. Hameenaho	1.6	0	0.50	0	17%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.5	1	0.38	1	13%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	1	0.42	0	9%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.5	0	0.38	0	12%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.4	3	0.52	0	18%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	2	0.26	0	6%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.3	1	0.45	0	16%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	1	0.36	2	15%	2
CBJ M. Wood	1.3	1	0.26	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.2	2	0.35	0	16%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	1	0.24	0	5%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	1	0.31	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	3	0.20	1	5%	1
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	0	0.18	0	4%	0
NJD M. Tsyplakov	0.9	1	0.24	0	8%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.9	0	0.20	0	5%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.8	0	0.20	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	0.8	2	0.24	0	10%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	1	0.22	0	6%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.7	0	0.16	0	7%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.5	0	0.09	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.