Game Recap: CBJ 3, NSH 4 (OT), October 26, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

CBJ3

Final/OTSat, Oct 26, 2024Every game that night

NSH4

NSH beat CBJ 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.76 expected goals to 2.53. B. Skjei led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Fantilli had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Wedgewood stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CBJ	0	2	1	0	3
NSH	0	1	2	1	4

2nd 3:53CBJK. Marchenko0.14 xG
2nd 6:42CBJZ. Aston-Reese0.14 xG
2nd 10:40NSHF. Forsberg0.04 xG
3rd 0:26NSHC. Smith0.11 xG
3rd 3:07CBJZ. Werenski0.07 xG
3rd 4:09NSHA. Carrier0.03 xG
OT 1:44NSHJ. Marchessault0.20 xG

Team Stats

CBJNSH

28Shots on goal33

2.53Expected goals2.76

54Shot attempts68

225v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play0/2

25Hits39

15Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes6

19Giveaways16

6Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.53 xGNSH 2.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ28 on goal, 3 scored

NSH33 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	4	19:30	1:55
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	6	1	2	-1	0	16:32	0:50
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	1	0	1	3	4	0	0	0	15:32	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	13:47	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	11:39	0:00
K. Labanc	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	11:10	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:13	2:09
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	18:01	2:04
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	17:16	2:03
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:08	0:49
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	13:12	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	8:47	0:44
Z. Werenski	D	1	0	1	4	2	2	+1	2	27:46	2:14
J. Johnson	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	14:03	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	24:38	0:39
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-3	0	20:43	0:58
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:36	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	+1	0	13:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	33	29	4	.879	61:07	OT loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	21:49	2:16
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	19:03	2:30
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	7	5	2	0	2	18:28	1:25
C. Smith	RW	1	0	1	2	6	0	+2	0	14:51	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	2	4	0	+2	0	13:50	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	1	1	0	6	0	+2	0	13:34	0:00
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:46	2:35
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	16:49	0:36
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	14:12	0:23
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-2	2	12:50	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:20	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:56	0:18
B. Skjei	D	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	21:56	0:37
A. Carrier	D	1	0	1	2	3	0	+2	0	20:26	0:12
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	6	1	1	-2	0	27:10	2:17
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	5	3	+1	0	20:45	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	15:22	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	13:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	28	25	3	.893	61:43	Win
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDante Fabbro CBJ Faces NSH, his team until Oct 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.0, NSH 3.8	CBJ 3, NSH 4
Total goals	6.8	7
Shots on goal	CBJ 28.9, NSH 36.8	CBJ 28, NSH 33
Win chance	NSH 62%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	4.3	7	1.21	1	44%	1
NSH R. Josi	3.6	6	1.09	0	22%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	3.5	1	1.10	0	41%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	3.4	5	0.92	1	38%	1
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.8	4	0.74	1	15%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	3	0.60	1	28%	1
NSH B. Skjei	2.5	2	0.57	2	13%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.4	3	0.70	0	24%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.4	6	0.53	1	21%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	2.3	1	0.55	0	21%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.3	2	0.44	0	17%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.2	2	0.87	1	30%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	0	0.51	0	19%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.8	0	0.84	0	24%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.6	2	0.59	0	21%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.5	0	0.40	0	16%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.5	0	0.36	0	14%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.4	0	0.38	0	17%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.4	0	0.40	0	17%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.4	0	0.44	0	11%	0
NSH J. Lauzon	1.3	0	0.19	0	5%	0
NSH A. Carrier	1.3	2	0.37	1	5%	1
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	2	0.27	1	15%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.3	0	0.35	0	8%	0
CBJ K. Labanc	1.3	1	0.29	1	11%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.2	2	0.18	0	4%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.2	2	0.25	1	10%	1
CBJ M. Olivier	1.1	0	0.28	1	12%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	1.1	3	0.21	0	10%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.1	0	0.23	1	11%	0
NSH D. Fabbro	1.1	0	0.18	0	3%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.0	3	0.18	1	9%	1
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.9	2	0.23	0	3%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.8	0	0.13	1	3%	0
CBJ J. Harris	0.7	0	0.22	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 13 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.