Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CBJ1
NYI3
NYI beat CBJ 3-1, with the chances close: 2.61 expected goals to 2.02. B. Horvat led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). I. Sorokin stopped 25 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NYI | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 4:52CBJK. JohnsonPP0.05 xG
- 2nd 0:43NYIB. Horvat0.20 xG
- 2nd 2:57NYIS. HolmstromSH0.13 xG
- 2nd 5:47NYIB. HorvatPP0.15 xG
Team Stats
CBJNYI
26Shots on goal25
2.02Expected goals2.61
52Shot attempts68
175v5 shots on goal17
1/4Power play1/2
27Hits40
25Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes10
14Giveaways9
1Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 2.02 xGNYI 2.61 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:05 | 5:34 |
| K. Johnson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:54 | 5:07 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:44 | 4:41 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 22:21 | 5:20 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:10 | 1:38 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:00 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 1:14 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:41 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:58 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:26 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 30:38 | 5:12 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 23:34 | 1:35 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:54 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:28 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 56:41 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Horvat | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:42 | 3:51 |
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:17 | 3:51 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:48 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:53 | 3:19 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:26 | 3:03 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:10 | 0:32 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:21 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:01 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 24:08 | 0:52 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 1:51 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:03 | 1:08 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:13 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 | 0:00 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Hogberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.9, NYI 3.3 | CBJ 1, NYI 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 28.8, NYI 30.9 | CBJ 26, NYI 25 |
| Win chance | NYI 56% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.7 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.0 | 4 | 0.87 | 2 | 35% | 2 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.9 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.8 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.8 | 3 | 1.00 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.8 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.6 | 4 | 0.90 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.3 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.1 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.1 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.8 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.7 | 4 | 0.55 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.6 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.6 | 0 | 0.52 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Belluz | 1.2 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI I. George | 0.7 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.6 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.