Game Recap: CBJ 4, NYI 3 (SO), March 24, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ4

Final/SOMon, Mar 24, 2025Every game that night

NYI3

CBJ beat NYI 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.26 expected goals to 3.05. S. Monahan led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Lee had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. E. Merzlikins stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CBJ	0	2	1	1	4
NYI	2	1	0	0	3

1st 13:16NYIP. Engvall0.12 xG
1st 18:41NYIK. Palmieri0.15 xG
2nd 5:31CBJA. Fantilli0.05 xG
2nd 17:13CBJB. JennerSH0.02 xG
2nd 19:12NYIA. Lee0.12 xG
3rd 12:56CBJK. Marchenko0.03 xG

Team Stats

CBJNYI

30Shots on goal33

2.26Expected goals3.05

68Shot attempts63

255v5 shots on goal29

0/1Power play0/3

34Hits19

17Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes2

10Giveaways10

1Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.26 xGNYI 3.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ28 on goal, 3 scored

NYI33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Monahan	C	0	2	2	1	3	0	+1	0	18:51	1:23
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	5	0	2	0	0	21:22	1:25
B. Jenner	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+2	0	19:42	1:33
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	4	4	0	0	0	16:24	0:05
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:46	0:37
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	16:37	1:56
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	15:49	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	14:40	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	14:18	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	10:49	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	10:17	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:38	0:27
D. Fabbro	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+3	0	23:36	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	21:27	0:04
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	33:44	1:55
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	16:18	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	2	15:41	0:35
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	33	30	3	.909	65:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	21:24	3:49
K. Palmieri	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	0	19:40	3:59
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	7	4	1	+1	0	17:29	1:56
P. Engvall	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	12:11	0:00
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	19:56	2:16
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	18:19	3:28
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	17:56	2:33
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:49	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:43	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	11:27	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:52	0:00
A. Boqvist	D	0	2	2	0	1	1	+1	0	15:27	2:33
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	26:26	3:25
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	18:57	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	+1	0	11:21	2:23
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	3	3	3	0	0	23:28	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	22:06	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	21:29	3:38

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	30	27	3	.900	65:00	OT loss
M. Hogberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.0, NYI 3.5	CBJ 4, NYI 3
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	CBJ 28.6, NYI 32.1	CBJ 30, NYI 33
Win chance	NYI 58%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	2	0.90	0	16%	0
NYI B. Horvat	3.2	1	0.88	1	37%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.5	3	0.66	0	12%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.5	3	0.78	1	32%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.4	7	0.63	1	28%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.4	5	0.69	1	28%	1
CBJ B. Jenner	2.2	3	0.55	1	25%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	2.2	1	0.74	2	24%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.2	2	0.64	1	13%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.2	4	0.58	1	23%	1
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	1	0.55	0	23%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.8	1	0.63	0	23%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.7	1	0.36	0	5%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.6	0	0.68	0	28%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.6	2	0.60	0	20%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.6	0	0.54	0	25%	0
NYI M. Reilly	1.5	4	0.25	1	6%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.5	3	0.33	0	7%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	0	0.34	0	15%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.3	3	0.33	1	15%	1
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	2	0.32	1	7%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.3	1	0.23	0	11%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.3	1	0.33	0	15%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.3	0	0.28	1	5%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.3	0	0.29	0	12%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.2	0	0.40	0	15%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.2	2	0.37	1	7%	0
CBJ L. Kunin	1.2	3	0.21	0	12%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.1	1	0.40	0	12%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.1	2	0.24	0	11%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	0	0.24	0	4%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	1.0	0	0.30	2	8%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.0	3	0.32	0	7%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	0	0.21	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.9	1	0.21	0	6%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	0.8	1	0.28	0	16%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.