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Game Recap
CBJ7
NYR3
CBJ beat NYR 7-3, with the chances close: 2.69 expected goals to 3.10. A. Fantilli scored three for CBJ. J. Brodzinski had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. D. Tarasov stopped 32 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| NYR | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 5:56CBJJ. Danforth0.24 xG
- 1st 19:31NYRA. Panarin0.02 xG
- 2nd 3:07CBJA. Fantilli0.07 xG
- 2nd 3:33CBJA. Fantilli0.26 xG
- 2nd 6:54NYRB. SchneiderSH0.08 xG
- 2nd 7:36NYRC. KreiderSH0.20 xG
- 2nd 17:03CBJM. Olivier0.06 xG
- 2nd 18:47CBJD. Fabbro0.14 xG
- 3rd 10:17CBJK. Johnson0.18 xG
- 3rd 11:51CBJA. Fantilli0.25 xG
Team Stats
CBJNYR
28Shots on goal35
2.69Expected goals3.10
50Shot attempts72
285v5 shots on goal22
0/1Power play0/4
7Hits16
18Blocked shots10
15Penalty minutes19
11Giveaways13
1Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 2.69 xGNYR 3.10 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Fantilli | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:41 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:37 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:41 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:37 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:42 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:41 |
| K. Johnson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:45 | 0:41 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 | 0:42 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 14:13 | 0:37 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:42 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 25:49 | 0:37 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:29 | 1:18 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:45 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | +2 | 2 | 25:29 | 0:42 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:14 | 0:42 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 60:00 | Win |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:01 | 3:37 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 6:26 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:35 | 6:10 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 | 6:18 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:55 | 1:42 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:36 | 6:25 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:07 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 14:16 | 1:34 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:47 | 1:25 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:01 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:18 | 1:50 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:19 | 6:12 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 17 | 17:18 | 0:13 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Quick | 28 | 21 | 7 | .750 | 57:24 | Loss |
| I. Shesterkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.9, NYR 3.3 | CBJ 7, NYR 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 27.8, NYR 30.3 | CBJ 28, NYR 35 |
| Win chance | NYR 57% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.3 | 2 | 0.89 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.1 | 5 | 1.17 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.7 | 2 | 0.83 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.7 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.7 | 4 | 0.94 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.5 | 4 | 0.66 | 3 | 25% | 3 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.4 | 3 | 0.59 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.3 | 4 | 0.63 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.3 | 0 | 0.64 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.2 | 3 | 1.06 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.1 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 2.0 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 2.0 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| CBJ L. Kunin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.5 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.5 | 5 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.4 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.3 | 4 | 0.30 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 2 | 5% | 1 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR B. Othmann | 1.2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.2 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.