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Game Recap
CBJ0
OTT4
OTT beat CBJ 4-0, with the chances close: 1.74 expected goals to 2.16. T. Chabot led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). Z. Werenski had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. L. Ullmark stopped 29 of 29.
Team Stats
CBJOTT
29Shots on goal30
2.16Expected goals1.74
63Shot attempts56
255v5 shots on goal25
0/0Power play0/3
27Hits24
12Blocked shots16
6Penalty minutes0
20Giveaways22
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 2.16 xGOTT 1.74 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:00 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 17:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:40 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:53 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:28 | 0:00 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:26 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:00 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 6 | 4 | 2 | .667 | 4:26 | Loss |
| E. Merzlikins | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 53:05 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:41 | 2:47 |
| D. Perron | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:30 | 2:41 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:12 | 3:13 |
| S. Pinto | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:16 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 2:08 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:57 | 2:42 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:26 | 2:19 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:26 | 3:20 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:02 | 2:44 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| A. Crookshank | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:46 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:26 | 2:36 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:53 | 3:01 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:58 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:06 | 0:18 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 29 | 29 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:54 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.2, OTT 3.5 | CBJ 0, OTT 4 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 29.3, OTT 31.2 | CBJ 29, OTT 30 |
| Win chance | OTT 54% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.3 | 8 | 0.79 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.5 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.4 | 5 | 0.59 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.4 | 4 | 0.66 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.81 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.3 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.2 | 3 | 0.55 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.2 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 2.1 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.1 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.0 | 1 | 0.98 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.0 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.9 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.8 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 1.8 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.7 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.6 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT A. Crookshank | 1.4 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.3 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 3 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.9 | 3 | 0.07 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 13 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.