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Game Recap
CBJ2
PHI1
CBJ beat PHI 2-1 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 1.93 expected goals to 2.84. CBJ outshot PHI 28 to 19. K. Marchenko had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. J. Greaves stopped 18 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 4:21CBJK. Marchenko0.15 xG
- 1st 10:24PHIA. Bump0.33 xG
Team Stats
CBJPHI
28Shots on goal19
1.93Expected goals2.84
60Shot attempts51
275v5 shots on goal12
0/1Power play0/4
25Hits20
18Blocked shots19
15Penalty minutes9
17Giveaways16
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 1.93 xGPHI 2.84 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:06 | 1:45 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 19:16 | 1:45 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:20 | 1:45 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:31 | 1:45 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:15 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:15 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:15 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:28 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 23:18 | 0:15 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27:13 | 1:45 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:37 | 0:15 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:02 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 19 | 18 | 1 | .947 | 64:51 | Win |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | 5:15 |
| A. Bump | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:34 | 2:41 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:15 | 5:17 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:05 | 5:13 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:23 | 4:54 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 3:03 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 1:01 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:09 | 1:13 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| D. Barkey | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 1:36 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:16 | 4:58 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 24:35 | 2:57 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:08 | 0:14 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 | 1:23 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CBJ
Line 1K. Marchenko17:59A. Fantilli14:35M. Marchment14:55
Line 2C. Coyle13:49M. Olivier12:49C. Sillinger12:38
Line 3C. Garland11:11K. Johnson11:16S. Monahan12:08
Line 4I. Lundestrom9:49B. Jenner9:44D. Heinen8:28
Pair 1Z. Werenski22:05D. Fabbro17:14
Pair 2I. Provorov19:29D. Mateychuk14:46
Pair 3D. Severson19:15E. Zamula7:20
PHI
Line 1O. Tippett14:15T. Zegras14:43N. Grebenkin11:46
Line 2C. Dvorak12:53T. Konecny14:29A. Bump12:15
Line 3S. Couturier13:05L. Glendening11:30C. Grundstrom10:51
Line 4M. Michkov12:39D. Barkey10:25N. Cates10:33
Pair 1R. Ristolainen20:12T. Sanheim20:02
Pair 2C. York18:00J. Drysdale18:40
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.2, PHI 2.9 | CBJ 2, PHI 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 26.3, PHI 26.2 | CBJ 28, PHI 19 |
| Win chance | CBJ 55% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.1 | 2 | 0.96 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.0 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.5 | 2 | 1.03 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 5 | 0.84 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.4 | 3 | 0.77 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.2 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.2 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 2.0 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Marchment | 1.9 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.7 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.6 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI C. Grundstrom | 1.5 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Garland | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.3 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI D. Barkey | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Heinen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.7 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI L. Glendening | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Zamula | 0.5 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.