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Game Recap
CBJ3
FinalTue, Mar 24, 2026Every game that night
PHI2

CBJ beat PHI 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.65 expected goals to 2.67. M. Marchment led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). O. Tippett had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. J. Greaves stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CBJ0213
PHI1012
  1. 1st 17:07PHIS. Couturier0.09 xG
  2. 2nd 0:44CBJM. Olivier0.10 xG
  3. 2nd 2:28CBJZ. Werenski0.12 xG
  4. 3rd 4:38CBJM. Marchment0.08 xG
  5. 3rd 17:56PHIJ. Drysdale0.05 xG

Team Stats

CBJPHI
19Shots on goal26
1.65Expected goals2.67
44Shot attempts57
195v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play0/1
25Hits13
10Blocked shots11
9Penalty minutes11
15Giveaways14
8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 1.65 xGPHI 2.67 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdPHI goal, 17:07CBJ goal, 0:44CBJ goal, 2:28CBJ goal, 4:38PHI goal, 17:56

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ19 on goal, 3 scored
PHI25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. MarchmentLW112431+1015:032:12
M. OlivierRW101571+1216:440:12
A. FantilliC011030+1015:162:29
K. MarchenkoRW011110+1014:382:32
C. CoyleC000020-1018:042:08
C. SillingerC000021+1017:130:00
B. JennerC000130+1016:310:00
S. MonahanC000000-1015:551:31
I. LundestromC000001-1014:410:00
C. GarlandRW0000000012:411:36
D. HeinenLW0001100012:180:00
K. JohnsonC0000100011:211:52
Z. WerenskiD112300+1024:272:33
D. SeversonD022100+1023:181:28
I. ProvorovD000200+1024:531:27
E. GudbransonD0000050019:580:00
D. FabbroD0001110713:280:00
D. MateychukD000010-1011:310:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Greaves26242.92360:00Win
E. Merzlikins000–0:00

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. ZegrasC0111000219:081:17
C. DvorakC0110000517:520:43
S. CouturierC101311+1016:150:00
L. GlendeningC011000+1012:300:00
T. KonecnyRW0002000019:321:17
O. TippettRW0007100218:180:43
M. MichkovRW0000100216:381:17
N. CatesLW000110-1016:001:17
D. BarkeyC000110-2013:160:43
G. HathawayRW000222+1012:430:00
A. BumpLW000100-1010:590:00
C. GrundstromRW000030009:500:00
R. RistolainenD011221-1022:271:17
J. DrysdaleD101102-1021:560:43
T. SanheimD000201-1022:500:43
C. YorkD000203-1020:280:00
N. SeelerD000110+1015:260:00
N. JuulsenD0000010012:580:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Vladar19163.84256:54Loss
S. Ersson000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1M. Olivier15:28C. Sillinger15:41C. Coyle12:56
Line 2B. Jenner14:25D. Heinen12:18I. Lundestrom12:02
Line 3M. Marchment12:51A. Fantilli12:47K. Marchenko12:06
Line 4S. Monahan11:44C. Garland10:57K. Johnson9:29
Pair 1Z. Werenski20:11D. Severson19:22
Pair 2I. Provorov20:49D. Fabbro12:56
Pair 3E. Gudbranson17:12D. Mateychuk11:31

PHI

Line 1O. Tippett15:23T. Zegras14:33D. Barkey11:42
Line 2S. Couturier14:04G. Hathaway12:43L. Glendening11:17
Line 3C. Dvorak12:51T. Konecny14:27A. Bump10:59
Line 4M. Michkov12:26N. Cates12:24C. Grundstrom9:50
Pair 1R. Ristolainen19:05T. Sanheim19:24
Pair 2C. York17:43J. Drysdale19:02
Pair 3N. Seeler13:54N. Juulsen12:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCBJ 3.2, PHI 2.7CBJ 3, PHI 2
Total goals5.95
Shots on goalCBJ 26.7, PHI 25.3CBJ 19, PHI 26
Win chanceCBJ 56%CBJ won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
PHI O. Tippett3.170.70030%0
CBJ Z. Werenski3.030.93220%1
CBJ K. Marchenko2.510.84131%0
PHI T. Konecny2.520.99033%0
CBJ A. Fantilli2.400.76128%0
PHI M. Michkov2.200.68024%0
PHI T. Zegras2.110.77126%0
PHI C. Dvorak2.100.68123%0
CBJ M. Marchment1.840.70226%1
CBJ C. Coyle1.800.71022%0
PHI R. Ristolainen1.820.3417%0
CBJ B. Jenner1.610.44019%0
PHI S. Couturier1.630.43114%1
PHI N. Cates1.510.54019%0
PHI A. Bump1.510.48018%0
CBJ C. Sillinger1.500.40013%0
CBJ S. Monahan1.500.55018%0
PHI C. Grundstrom1.500.26015%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.410.41111%1
PHI T. Sanheim1.420.46013%0
CBJ I. Provorov1.420.3408%0
CBJ K. Johnson1.300.42015%0
CBJ D. Severson1.310.42210%0
CBJ C. Garland1.300.38015%0
CBJ M. Olivier1.350.37116%1
PHI C. York1.320.3509%0
PHI N. Seeler1.110.1604%0
PHI D. Barkey1.010.32012%0
CBJ D. Fabbro0.910.2106%0
CBJ D. Heinen0.910.29013%0
CBJ E. Gudbranson0.900.1904%0
CBJ D. Mateychuk0.900.3009%0
CBJ I. Lundestrom0.800.2009%0
PHI L. Glendening0.800.1318%0
PHI G. Hathaway0.820.19010%0
PHI N. Juulsen0.500.1202%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.