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Game Recap
CBJ4
Final/OTTue, Oct 27, 2026Every game that night
PHI3

CBJ beat PHI 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.80 expected goals to 3.48. PHI outshot CBJ 31 to 15. K. Johnson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Bump had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. C. Talbot stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
CBJ30014
PHI01203
  1. 1st 10:58CBJA. Fantilli0.19 xG
  2. 1st 12:54CBJK. Johnson0.28 xG
  3. 1st 13:44CBJD. Mateychuk0.07 xG
  4. 2nd 9:59PHIN. Cates0.49 xG
  5. 3rd 15:04PHIT. Zegras0.20 xG
  6. 3rd 19:49PHIJ. Drysdale0.13 xG
  7. OT 2:22CBJK. Johnson0.27 xG

Team Stats

CBJPHI
15Shots on goal31
1.80Expected goals3.48
36Shot attempts66
105v5 shots on goal24
0/1Power play0/2
18Hits15
19Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways14
5Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 1.80 xGPHI 3.48 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTCBJ goal, 10:58CBJ goal, 12:54CBJ goal, 13:44PHI goal, 9:59PHI goal, 15:04PHI goal, 19:49CBJ goal, 2:22

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ14 on goal, 4 scored
PHI32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. JohnsonC213221+3014:410:54
A. FantilliC112230+3020:451:06
M. OlivierRW0111320017:370:00
V. NichushkinRW0111010016:500:54
M. KniesLW011100+1016:181:06
C. CoyleC0000000019:360:54
S. MonahanC000021-2217:291:06
C. SillingerC000320-2016:110:00
C. GarlandRW000201-2213:531:06
R. LombergLW0001100010:480:00
L. Del Bel BelluzC000001007:560:00
D. VoronkovLW000000007:440:00
Z. WerenskiD022112+1028:092:00
D. MateychukD1011010021:190:00
J. ChristiansenD0110210214:510:00
D. SeversonD0000020024:380:54
E. GudbransonD0000230017:300:00
D. FabbroD0000030014:510:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Talbot31283.90362:22Win
J. Greaves000–0:00

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. ZegrasC1123000020:473:14
C. DvorakC011300+1218:140:50
T. FoersterRW011303+2016:480:50
P. MartoneRW0112200015:233:10
N. CatesLW101110-1014:440:00
M. MichkovRW0001300221:353:13
D. BarkeyC000000-1015:273:10
S. CouturierC0001000014:160:00
C. KnubleRW000100-1012:160:00
A. BumpLW0005310012:110:47
N. AcciariC0001110011:340:00
M. BuntingLW0001110011:270:00
J. DrysdaleD101201+1026:483:22
T. SanheimD0112010024:570:38
O. BonkD011200-2016:480:46
C. YorkD000202-1021:490:00
N. SeelerD000000+1016:050:00
H. McDonaldD0001420013:080:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Vladar15114.73361:11OT loss
J. Woll000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1C. Coyle14:03M. Olivier15:20M. Knies14:04
Line 2A. Fantilli15:53K. Johnson11:24V. Nichushkin15:03
Line 3S. Monahan14:22C. Garland12:47C. Sillinger14:06
Line 4D. Voronkov7:44L. Belluz7:56R. Lomberg9:48
Pair 1Z. Werenski21:10D. Severson20:03
Pair 2D. Mateychuk18:42J. Christiansen14:06
Pair 3E. Gudbranson13:53D. Fabbro13:41

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak14:33T. Zegras14:36C. Knuble12:11
Line 2M. Michkov15:54P. Martone12:13N. Cates13:41
Line 3S. Couturier12:54M. Bunting11:27N. Acciari10:21
Line 4A. Bump11:24D. Barkey10:36T. Foerster12:12
Pair 1T. Sanheim19:38J. Drysdale19:51
Pair 2N. Seeler16:05C. York18:27
Pair 3H. McDonald13:08O. Bonk14:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 20 overs hit (45%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
CBJ Z. Werenski3.5+135-1601Under
PHI M. Michkov2.5+142-1651Under
PHI P. Martone2.5+140-1852Under
PHI T. Foerster2.5+140-1803Over
PHI A. Bump1.5-115+1105Over
CBJ C. Coyle1.5-125+1200Under
PHI C. Dvorak1.5+100-1203Over
CBJ C. Garland1.5+115-1452Over
CBJ C. Sillinger1.5+114-1353Over
PHI D. Barkey1.5+130-1900Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk1.5+115-1301Under
CBJ D. Severson1.5+135-1600Under
PHI J. Drysdale1.5+125-1552Over
CBJ K. Johnson1.5-128+1052Over
CBJ M. Olivier1.5+104-1151Under
PHI S. Couturier1.5+110-1301Under
CBJ S. Monahan1.5+108-1150Under
PHI T. Sanheim1.5+125-1502Over
PHI T. Zegras1.5-160+1403Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin1.5-140+1251Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCBJ 3.0, PHI 2.8CBJ 4, PHI 3
Total goals5.87
Shots on goalCBJ 27.3, PHI 25.0CBJ 15, PHI 31
Win chanceCBJ 53%CBJ won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CBJ Z. Werenski3.310.96221%0
CBJ A. Fantilli2.720.75229%1
PHI M. Michkov2.110.72025%0
PHI T. Zegras1.930.77226%1
PHI P. Martone1.920.56120%0
CBJ V. Nichushkin1.910.59125%0
CBJ K. Johnson1.820.58321%2
CBJ C. Coyle1.800.68023%0
PHI T. Foerster1.830.49125%0
CBJ M. Olivier1.710.42119%0
PHI C. Dvorak1.730.60121%0
CBJ M. Knies1.610.68125%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.620.49115%0
PHI A. Bump1.650.41017%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.520.41112%1
CBJ C. Garland1.520.38016%0
CBJ C. Sillinger1.530.38013%0
CBJ S. Monahan1.400.48018%0
PHI M. Bunting1.410.40016%0
PHI S. Couturier1.410.41014%0
CBJ D. Mateychuk1.410.38112%1
CBJ D. Severson1.300.46011%0
PHI C. York1.320.3309%0
PHI N. Cates1.310.43115%1
PHI N. Acciari1.210.27013%0
PHI N. Seeler1.100.2306%0
PHI O. Bonk1.120.4819%0
PHI D. Barkey1.100.48016%0
CBJ D. Voronkov1.100.27012%0
CBJ R. Lomberg0.910.1406%0
CBJ J. Christiansen0.800.1413%0
CBJ E. Gudbranson0.800.1604%0
CBJ L. Belluz0.700.1706%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.