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Game Recap
CBJ4
PIT3
CBJ beat PIT 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 1.76 expected goals to 1.89. R. Rakell led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Fabbro had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. E. Merzlikins stopped 20 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| PIT | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 3:20CBJD. VoronkovPP0.21 xG
- 2nd 0:51PITM. BuntingPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 0:24PITR. Rakell0.04 xG
- 3rd 10:09PITR. Rakell0.14 xG
- 3rd 12:05CBJD. Voronkov0.05 xG
- 3rd 17:24CBJA. FantilliPP0.11 xG
Team Stats
CBJPIT
29Shots on goal23
1.76Expected goals1.89
52Shot attempts65
245v5 shots on goal19
2/2Power play1/1
10Hits16
23Blocked shots11
2Penalty minutes4
17Giveaways14
8Takeaways0
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 1.76 xGPIT 1.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 1:42 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:50 | 1:42 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:14 | 1:15 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:01 | 1:42 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:27 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 29:19 | 1:42 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 25:56 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:54 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 64:55 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:48 | 1:43 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:46 | 1:43 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:53 | 1:43 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:43 | 1:43 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 24:40 | 0:51 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:52 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:01 | 0:00 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| O. Pickering | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.3, PIT 3.5 | CBJ 4, PIT 3 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 30.8, PIT 31.9 | CBJ 29, PIT 23 |
| Win chance | PIT 54% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.6 | 1 | 0.98 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.1 | 1 | 1.32 | 2 | 38% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 3.0 | 1 | 0.89 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 3.0 | 0 | 1.01 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.6 | 4 | 0.86 | 2 | 32% | 2 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.6 | 4 | 0.82 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.5 | 3 | 0.80 | 2 | 32% | 2 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.5 | 2 | 0.90 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.3 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.3 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.2 | 3 | 0.81 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT J. Puljujarvi | 1.7 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 1.7 | 3 | 0.46 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.7 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.5 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.4 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.4 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 0.9 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 0.7 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| PIT O. Pickering | 0.6 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 13 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.