Game Recap: CBJ 5, PIT 4 (SO), October 25, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ5

Final/SOSat, Oct 25, 2025Every game that night

PIT4

CBJ beat PIT 5-4 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.28 expected goals to 2.53. CBJ outshot PIT 41 to 31. D. Voronkov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Voronkov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. E. Merzlikins stopped 27 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CBJ	1	1	2	1	5
PIT	2	0	2	0	4

1st 0:59PITR. Shea0.08 xG
1st 15:44CBJC. Coyle0.40 xG
1st 18:01PITA. Mantha0.06 xG
2nd 17:39CBJD. Voronkov0.14 xG
3rd 1:55CBJE. Chinakhov0.10 xG
3rd 4:54CBJD. Voronkov0.10 xG
3rd 14:54PITK. LetangPP0.06 xG
3rd 16:54PITB. Rust0.09 xG

Team Stats

CBJPIT

41Shots on goal31

4.28Expected goals2.53

76Shot attempts62

375v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play1/3

24Hits18

15Blocked shots16

11Penalty minutes7

8Giveaways20

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 4.28 xGPIT 2.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ41 on goal, 4 scored

PIT30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Voronkov	LW	2	0	2	5	2	0	+2	0	17:13	3:24
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	22:54	3:15
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	20:32	3:21
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	18:28	3:25
C. Coyle	C	1	0	1	2	2	2	-1	0	18:14	0:45
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	2	15:51	0:36
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	10:26	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	9:12	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	9:05	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:40	0:34
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	3	4	2	-1	7	15:31	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	13:32	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	13:56	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	0	0	29:49	3:26
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	22:46	0:35
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	4	4	0	+1	0	21:20	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	19:43	0:39
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	14:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	31	27	4	.871	64:38	Win
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	0	2	2	4	1	1	+1	0	21:13	5:37
A. Mantha	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	14:35	2:35
B. Rust	RW	1	0	1	3	0	3	-1	0	23:11	4:39
T. Novak	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	13:47	1:15
J. Brazeau	RW	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	12:49	0:15
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	24:32	5:36
F. Hallander	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	16:09	1:15
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	14:58	2:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:21	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:28	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:31	0:00
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:26	0:16
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	27:39	5:02
K. Letang	D	1	0	1	2	2	3	+2	0	23:02	0:50
R. Shea	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	2	18:48	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	18:42	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	-2	0	16:27	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	5	14:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	41	37	4	.902	64:57	OT loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko15:02D. Voronkov13:27S. Monahan14:27

Line 2K. Johnson13:57A. Fantilli15:00B. Jenner14:18

Line 3M. Olivier11:52C. Sillinger13:05C. Coyle12:11

Line 4Z. Aston-Reese8:28E. Chinakhov9:01I. Lundestrom8:05

Pair 1Z. Werenski22:02D. Mateychuk18:28

Pair 2D. Severson18:02I. Provorov17:28

Pair 3E. Gudbranson11:26D. Fabbro12:16

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby16:36B. Rust14:51R. Rakell12:28

Line 2E. Malkin13:41J. Brazeau12:09A. Mantha11:35

Line 3N. Acciari11:08C. Dewar11:10B. Lizotte11:30

Line 4F. Hallander12:19T. Novak11:38P. Tomasino10:10

Pair 1K. Letang19:21R. Shea17:56

Pair 2M. Dumba13:21C. Clifton15:30

Pair 3E. Karlsson17:59P. Wotherspoon15:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEgor Chinakhov PIT Faces CBJ, his team until Dec 20251 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.1, PIT 3.5	CBJ 5, PIT 4
Total goals	6.6	9
Shots on goal	CBJ 28.5, PIT 30.7	CBJ 41, PIT 31
Win chance	PIT 57%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.2	3	0.79	0	16%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.9	3	0.92	1	34%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.6	3	1.13	0	36%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	3	0.74	1	29%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	2	0.82	0	30%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.2	3	0.54	0	24%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	3	0.70	1	15%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.1	1	0.58	0	24%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.1	5	0.72	1	22%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.0	4	0.83	2	26%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.9	5	0.56	2	23%	2
PIT K. Letang	1.9	2	0.44	1	10%	1
PIT A. Mantha	1.7	3	0.58	2	23%	1
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	3	0.35	1	13%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.6	1	0.41	0	15%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.6	2	0.60	1	20%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	2	0.48	1	20%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	2	0.33	0	14%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	1	0.40	0	8%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	1	0.34	0	15%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.4	3	0.29	1	13%	1
PIT J. Brazeau	1.4	0	0.41	1	19%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.3	2	0.43	1	17%	1
PIT F. Hallander	1.2	3	0.29	0	14%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.2	0	0.38	0	17%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	1	0.37	0	9%	0
PIT C. Clifton	1.2	0	0.29	0	5%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	1	0.23	0	13%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	1	0.26	1	6%	0
PIT M. Dumba	1.1	0	0.19	0	5%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	4	0.30	0	8%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.1	0	0.23	1	3%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.0	2	0.19	1	8%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	2	0.21	1	6%	1
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	0	0.18	1	8%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.