Game Recap: CBJ 2, SEA 5, November 12, 2024

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Game Recap

CBJ2

FinalTue, Nov 12, 2024Every game that night

SEA5

SEA beat CBJ 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.98 expected goals to 3.76. J. McCann led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Christiansen had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Daccord stopped 38 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	2	0	0	2
SEA	0	4	1	5

1st 13:46CBJS. Kuraly0.42 xG
1st 14:08CBJZ. Aston-Reese0.02 xG
2nd 2:50SEAT. Kartye0.16 xG
2nd 7:13SEAB. Tanev0.14 xG
2nd 7:23SEAE. TolvanenPP0.09 xG
2nd 13:34SEAW. Borgen0.06 xG
3rd 18:42SEAJ. McCannEN0.59 xG

Team Stats

CBJSEA

40Shots on goal33

3.76Expected goals2.98

77Shot attempts57

335v5 shots on goal28

0/1Power play1/3

25Hits14

13Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes0

15Giveaways18

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.76 xGSEA 2.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ40 on goal, 2 scored

SEA32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	1	1	2	3	6	2	+2	0	13:22	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	1	1	2	2	4	1	+2	0	11:49	0:00
K. Labanc	RW	0	2	2	0	1	0	+2	2	11:01	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	18:45	1:17
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	18:33	1:16
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	16:12	1:23
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	15:49	1:08
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:02	0:25
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	14:59	0:18
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-3	0	14:28	0:22
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-3	0	13:54	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	6	1	-3	0	13:48	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	28:05	1:19
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	2	21:02	0:24
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	19:55	0:33
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	19:17	0:00
J. Johnson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	16:07	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	6	1	0	+1	0	14:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	32	28	4	.875	59:31	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
J. McCann	LW	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	17:16	2:38
J. Eberle	RW	0	2	2	2	0	1	0	15:12	2:31
Y. Gourde	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	16:51	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	16:46	0:10
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	16:34	2:29
J. Schwartz	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	15:52	1:10
B. Tanev	LW	1	0	1	3	0	3	0	14:34	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	12:47	1:06
T. Kartye	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	11:09	0:00
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	16:26	2:26
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:39	1:20
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	12:12	0:49
R. Evans	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	22:10	0:40
W. Borgen	D	1	0	1	2	2	2	0	16:11	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	22:19	3:22
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+2	21:29	0:14
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	20:18	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	14:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	40	38	2	.950	60:00	Win
A. Stezka	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayAdam Larsson SEA Turns 32 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.0, SEA 3.4	CBJ 2, SEA 5
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	CBJ 28.6, SEA 31.1	CBJ 40, SEA 33
Win chance	SEA 57%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.0	2	0.71	0	14%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.8	6	1.00	2	37%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.8	3	0.71	0	17%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.3	4	0.60	0	27%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	2.3	2	0.54	0	21%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.2	2	0.55	0	21%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.2	4	0.46	0	17%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.1	3	0.63	0	23%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.1	3	0.63	1	23%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.0	3	0.61	1	25%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.0	2	0.68	2	25%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.8	0	0.40	0	19%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	0	0.64	0	24%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.7	2	0.58	1	20%	0
SEA Y. Gourde	1.7	1	0.51	1	18%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.6	1	0.29	0	8%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.5	3	0.46	1	20%	1
SEA R. Evans	1.5	0	0.42	1	9%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.5	5	0.40	0	17%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.5	1	0.89	0	25%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.5	1	0.29	0	6%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.4	2	0.42	0	10%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.4	3	0.39	1	19%	1
CBJ I. Provorov	1.3	2	0.34	0	7%	0
CBJ K. Labanc	1.2	0	0.29	2	11%	0
SEA W. Borgen	1.2	2	0.27	1	4%	1
SEA T. Kartye	1.1	1	0.27	1	14%	1
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.1	3	0.22	2	11%	1
CBJ M. Olivier	1.1	0	0.28	0	12%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	1.0	6	0.20	0	3%	0
SEA S. Wright	0.9	0	0.34	0	17%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	0.9	2	0.21	2	10%	1
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.9	2	0.17	0	9%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.9	1	0.22	0	3%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.8	1	0.14	0	3%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.7	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.