Game Recap: CBJ 2, SJS 5, January 6, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ2

FinalTue, Jan 6, 2026Every game that night

SJS5

SJS beat CBJ 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.35 expected goals to 3.57. A. Wennberg led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Toffoli had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 34 of 36.

Team Stats

CBJSJS

36Shots on goal36

3.57Expected goals5.35

65Shot attempts64

315v5 shots on goal22

0/3Power play1/5

12Hits20

16Blocked shots15

15Penalty minutes11

12Giveaways11

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.57 xGSJS 5.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ36 on goal, 2 scored

SJS35 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	-2	0	17:41	3:16
S. Monahan	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	16:16	2:57
D. Voronkov	LW	0	1	1	3	2	1	-1	0	16:08	3:03
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	4	4	1	0	2	18:18	2:55
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	17:24	2:59
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-2	0	16:59	3:22
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	5	15:53	0:04
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:00	0:04
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	13:29	0:04
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	13:04	2:33
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	7:39	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	6:43	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	28:17	2:29
Z. Werenski	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	-3	0	24:47	3:33
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	2	22:58	2:41
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	20:07	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	13:53	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	34	31	3	.912	59:11	Loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	1	2	3	3	1	1	+1	0	21:14	6:40
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	5	0	2	+2	0	25:41	7:38
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	6	0	2	-1	0	21:17	6:48
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	0	17:23	6:42
C. Graf	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:52	0:44
P. Regenda	LW	1	0	1	3	5	1	0	0	14:05	1:25
Z. Ostapchuk	C	1	0	1	4	3	2	+1	0	12:25	0:00
I. Chernyshov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15:11	1:47
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	11:35	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:05	1:34
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	8:42	0:18
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	5	8:07	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	19:22	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	19:47	6:46
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:25	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	18:48	1:10
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	18:24	0:18
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	15:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	36	34	2	.944	59:53	Win
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko13:36A. Fantilli12:48D. Voronkov12:27

Line 2M. Olivier11:49C. Sillinger14:01C. Coyle11:10

Line 3S. Monahan11:52K. Johnson10:23B. Jenner11:09

Line 4D. Heinen6:36Z. Aston-Reese7:08B. Gaunce10:21

Pair 1D. Severson17:50I. Provorov20:23

Pair 2Z. Werenski17:27D. Mateychuk16:51

Pair 3D. Fabbro10:29J. Christiansen7:10

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini16:59W. Eklund14:13I. Chernyshov13:24

Line 2T. Toffoli10:31P. Regenda11:42A. Wennberg11:02

Line 3J. Skinner9:31C. Graf11:32T. Dellandrea7:50

Line 4B. Goodrow9:40Z. Ostapchuk9:44R. Reaves8:00

Pair 1M. Ferraro16:01V. Iorio16:20

Pair 2N. Leddy15:33S. Dickinson15:26

Pair 3D. Orlov12:35T. Liljegren13:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.5, SJS 3.1	CBJ 2, SJS 5
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	CBJ 30.6, SJS 28.3	CBJ 36, SJS 36
Win chance	CBJ 56%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.6	5	1.32	1	35%	1
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.6	2	1.10	1	23%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.9	3	0.83	0	32%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.9	4	0.88	1	33%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.6	7	0.76	1	30%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.5	4	0.66	0	28%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.5	6	0.79	1	23%	0
SJS I. Chernyshov	2.0	0	0.67	0	19%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.8	4	0.71	1	22%	1
SJS J. Skinner	1.8	1	0.49	0	22%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.8	2	0.48	1	11%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.8	3	0.56	1	24%	0
SJS P. Regenda	1.7	3	0.33	1	17%	1
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	0	0.41	0	14%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.6	1	0.62	0	21%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.5	2	0.62	0	16%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.5	1	0.55	1	22%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	0	0.43	0	17%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.5	1	0.49	1	10%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.4	2	0.29	0	14%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	3	0.62	3	18%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.3	4	0.44	0	10%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.3	2	0.26	2	6%	1
SJS T. Liljegren	1.2	1	0.31	0	8%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.2	2	0.39	0	14%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	1	0.27	0	7%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.1	0	0.19	0	5%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.1	1	0.24	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.0	1	0.32	0	14%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	0.9	1	0.18	0	8%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	1	0.20	0	10%	0
SJS V. Iorio	0.8	0	0.24	0	4%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	4	0.11	1	6%	1
SJS N. Leddy	0.7	0	0.26	0	4%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.7	0	0.15	0	8%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.