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Game Recap
CBJ3
TBL5
TBL beat CBJ 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.50 expected goals to 2.51. N. Paul led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Monahan had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| TBL | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 3:21TBLL. Glendening0.07 xG
- 2nd 1:28TBLN. Paul0.08 xG
- 2nd 7:36TBLJ. Guentzel0.14 xG
- 2nd 14:18TBLM. ChaffeePP0.17 xG
- 3rd 7:23CBJM. Pyyhtia0.10 xG
- 3rd 8:05CBJA. Fantilli0.12 xG
- 3rd 14:11CBJC. SillingerPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 17:51TBLB. PointEN0.86 xG
Team Stats
CBJTBL
32Shots on goal33
2.51Expected goals4.50
67Shot attempts51
195v5 shots on goal31
1/5Power play1/2
24Hits16
5Blocked shots22
19Penalty minutes14
18Giveaways27
2Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 2.51 xGTBL 4.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:54 | 6:18 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:34 | 6:19 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:23 | 3:02 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:13 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 17 | 9:22 | 2:45 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:09 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:00 | 5:40 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:59 | 6:18 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:13 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:04 | 0:59 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:22 | 3:03 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 5:20 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30:12 | 6:27 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 26:05 | 2:57 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:20 | 3:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:09 |
| J. Harris | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:09 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 32 | 28 | 4 | .875 | 57:43 | Loss |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:12 | 1:41 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:49 | 3:21 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:40 | 1:05 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:25 | 3:11 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 | 3:11 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:27 | 1:40 |
| L. Glendening | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:55 | 0:03 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:18 | 2:06 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:55 | 1:11 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:05 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 10:07 | 0:35 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 9:10 | 1:44 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:16 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 22:42 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:22 | 3:06 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:08 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 1:53 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 32 | 29 | 3 | .906 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.0, TBL 4.0 | CBJ 3, TBL 5 |
| Total goals | 7.0 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 29.0, TBL 31.5 | CBJ 32, TBL 33 |
| Win chance | TBL 64% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.3 | 4 | 1.82 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.1 | 5 | 1.23 | 2 | 43% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.1 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.6 | 3 | 1.32 | 1 | 46% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.6 | 1 | 1.18 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 6 | 0.65 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.3 | 1 | 0.91 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.3 | 6 | 0.71 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.1 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 1.9 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.9 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 2 | 0.61 | 3 | 25% | 1 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.8 | 4 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.1 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Harris | 0.5 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.