Game Recap: CBJ 3, TOR 2 (OT), November 20, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ3

Final/OTThu, Nov 20, 2025Every game that night

TOR2

CBJ beat TOR 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.97 expected goals to 2.44. A. Fantilli led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). W. Nylander had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. J. Greaves stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CBJ	0	2	0	1	3
TOR	0	1	1	0	2

2nd 3:17CBJD. Voronkov0.22 xG
2nd 12:01CBJA. Fantilli0.05 xG
2nd 14:12TORD. Mermis0.02 xG
3rd 3:33TORJ. Tavares0.12 xG
OT 4:21CBJA. Fantilli0.15 xG

Team Stats

CBJTOR

30Shots on goal29

2.97Expected goals2.44

63Shot attempts70

235v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play0/2

15Hits27

25Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes2

20Giveaways14

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.97 xGTOR 2.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ30 on goal, 3 scored

TOR27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Fantilli	C	2	1	3	3	0	1	+2	0	22:19	3:34
D. Voronkov	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	17:38	2:57
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	20:11	2:56
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	19:43	3:35
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	2	17:59	1:03
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:34	1:04
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	16:03	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	14:43	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:45	0:26
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:34	0:00
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:59	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:49	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	3	3	6	2	1	+2	0	28:48	3:43
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	+1	0	28:53	0:41
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:07	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	18:43	0:01
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	15:11	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	10:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	29	27	2	.931	64:21	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	1	1	2	5	3	0	0	0	20:59	2:27
E. Cowan	RW	0	1	1	4	2	2	+2	0	20:06	2:52
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	6	0	3	0	0	21:50	2:48
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	17:22	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:27	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:17	0:57
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	15:46	1:33
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:03	1:35
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	14:53	2:23
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	12:15	1:14
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:25	0:00
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:18	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	22:56	0:53
D. Mermis	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:59	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-2	0	25:09	0:11
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	24:43	3:07
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:55	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	30	27	3	.900	64:21	OT loss
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1A. Fantilli16:12D. Voronkov14:41K. Marchenko14:28

Line 2C. Coyle15:09M. Olivier15:05C. Sillinger12:58

Line 3M. Wood13:14S. Monahan13:57K. Johnson11:19

Line 4I. Lundestrom11:02L. Belluz8:52E. Chinakhov8:42

Pair 1Z. Werenski21:36I. Provorov24:05

Pair 2D. Severson18:35D. Mateychuk16:37

Pair 3D. Fabbro12:49J. Christiansen10:04

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares17:09W. Nylander17:24E. Cowan16:00

Line 2N. Robertson13:37B. McMann13:28M. Domi13:29

Line 3S. Laughton13:45S. Lorentz13:48C. Jarnkrok10:33

Line 4D. Joshua8:14M. Maccelli9:59J. Quillan8:18

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson20:42M. Rielly19:45

Pair 2J. McCabe21:05S. Benoit17:31

Pair 3D. Mermis12:16T. Stecher12:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKirill Marchenko TOR Faces CBJ, his team until Apr 20262 SOG
HometownAdam Fantilli CBJ Plays near home (born in Nobleton)2 G, 1 A, 3 SOG
HometownSean Monahan CBJ Plays near home (born in Brampton)3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.2, TOR 3.5	CBJ 3, TOR 2
Total goals	6.7	5
Shots on goal	CBJ 30.0, TOR 30.1	CBJ 30, TOR 29
Win chance	TOR 56%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	6	0.91	3	19%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.2	5	1.07	2	39%	1
TOR W. Nylander	3.1	6	1.25	0	42%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.7	2	0.81	0	29%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.5	3	0.71	3	28%	2
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.1	1	0.62	2	24%	1
TOR N. Robertson	2.1	0	0.53	0	24%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.1	1	0.44	0	22%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.9	1	0.31	0	15%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.9	3	0.71	0	21%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.9	0	0.43	0	15%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	1	0.73	0	13%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.8	4	0.45	1	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.6	2	0.53	1	10%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	3	0.42	0	9%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	2	0.49	0	17%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	1	0.50	0	15%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.4	3	0.50	0	18%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.4	0	0.29	0	13%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	1	0.37	0	15%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.3	1	0.48	0	16%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	0	0.38	0	9%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.1	4	0.32	0	13%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	1	0.37	0	11%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	0	0.42	0	8%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	0	0.28	0	12%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.1	2	0.34	0	16%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	0	0.35	0	17%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	0	0.25	0	6%	0
CBJ L. Belluz	1.0	1	0.32	0	10%	0
TOR D. Mermis	0.9	1	0.16	1	5%	1
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.15	0	3%	0
TOR T. Stecher	0.8	0	0.12	0	4%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	0	0.17	0	8%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	3	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.