Game Recap: CGY 2, ANA 3 (SO), March 1, 2026

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Game Recap

CGY2

Final/SOSun, Mar 1, 2026Every game that night

ANA3

ANA beat CGY 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 4.06 expected goals to 3.79. C. Gauthier led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Gauthier had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. L. Dostal stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CGY	1	1	0	0	2
ANA	0	1	1	1	3

1st 9:41CGYJ. Farabee0.10 xG
2nd 11:14ANAC. Gauthier0.15 xG
2nd 16:10CGYY. SharangovichPP0.14 xG
3rd 10:41ANAC. GauthierPP0.11 xG

Team Stats

CGYANA

34Shots on goal36

3.79Expected goals4.06

76Shot attempts77

255v5 shots on goal24

1/3Power play1/5

14Hits25

22Blocked shots15

10Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways22

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 3.79 xGANA 4.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY32 on goal, 2 scored

ANA35 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Farabee	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	2	20:25	3:25
Y. Sharangovich	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:24	2:43
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	2	15:45	2:21
J. Beecher	C	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	12:39	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	9:57	0:00
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	19:37	3:01
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	18:14	2:23
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	18:11	2:41
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	15:52	0:00
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	15:39	3:04
M. Gridin	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:07	3:22
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:24	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	22:49	2:12
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	25:08	3:33
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	24:28	0:00
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	0	21:56	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	14:02	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	11:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Cooley	36	34	2	.944	65:00	OT loss
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Gauthier	LW	2	0	2	9	2	0	+1	0	20:33	5:30
B. Sennecke	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	2	21:50	5:14
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	20:56	5:31
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	20:45	5:52
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	17:41	1:51
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	17:11	0:00
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	3	6	1	-1	0	14:14	1:52
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:26	1:30
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	2	11:15	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:02	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:53	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	4	2	2	0	2	25:07	5:35
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	28:06	2:08
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	22:40	1:22
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:45	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:44	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:36	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	34	32	2	.941	65:00	Win
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1N. Kadri14:36C. Zary15:00J. Farabee13:30

Line 2B. Coleman12:31M. Coronato11:29M. Backlund12:30

Line 3M. Frost11:07M. Gridin10:43Y. Sharangovich11:47

Line 4R. Lomberg9:57A. Klapka9:24J. Beecher9:12

Pair 1Z. Whitecloud19:13Y. Kuznetsov17:56

Pair 2M. Weegar16:26K. Bahl17:20

Pair 3J. Hanley12:23B. Pachal11:26

ANA

Line 1C. Kreider12:57L. Carlsson13:54C. Gauthier13:40

Line 2A. Killorn12:20R. Poehling12:35J. Harkins10:02

Line 3M. McTavish11:56J. Viel12:22B. Sennecke14:28

Line 4R. Johnston9:53T. Washe9:14

Pair 1R. Gudas13:07O. Zellweger12:52

Pair 2J. Trouba19:32P. Mintyukov16:46

Pair 3J. LaCombe17:48D. Helleson14:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayMatvei Gridin CGY Turns 20 that day2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.9, ANA 3.4	CGY 2, ANA 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	CGY 28.3, ANA 31.6	CGY 34, ANA 36
Win chance	ANA 59%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.5	9	0.80	2	30%	2
CGY N. Kadri	2.8	7	0.76	0	27%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	2.8	0	0.90	1	28%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.5	3	0.57	0	20%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.4	4	0.55	0	22%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.3	4	0.81	1	27%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	0	0.54	0	12%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.2	0	0.60	0	23%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.2	3	0.50	0	22%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.2	0	0.68	0	34%	0
ANA A. Killorn	2.1	4	0.53	0	23%	0
ANA J. Trouba	2.0	2	0.37	0	8%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.0	1	0.50	1	23%	1
CGY M. Gridin	1.9	2	0.39	0	16%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.9	4	0.60	1	11%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.8	2	0.43	1	19%	1
CGY C. Zary	1.7	4	0.46	0	18%	0
ANA J. Viel	1.6	3	0.20	0	12%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.5	3	0.54	0	18%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.5	2	0.42	1	15%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.5	1	0.26	0	7%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.2	2	0.25	0	8%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.2	1	0.28	0	13%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.2	1	0.39	0	9%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.1	1	0.28	0	8%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.1	0	0.29	1	6%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.1	0	0.24	0	5%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.0	1	0.20	0	3%	0
ANA J. Harkins	1.0	1	0.19	0	9%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	1.0	0	0.18	1	8%	0
ANA T. Washe	1.0	2	0.24	0	11%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.8	0	0.21	0	5%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.8	0	0.15	0	3%	0
CGY J. Beecher	0.7	0	0.13	1	6%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.6	1	0.20	0	6%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.5	2	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.