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Game Recap
CGY4
FinalTue, Oct 13, 2026Every game that night
ANA2

CGY beat ANA 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.83 expected goals to 2.66. CGY outshot ANA 36 to 25. A. Suniev led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Strome had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. D. Wolf stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CGY1124
ANA2002
  1. 1st 8:32CGYA. Klapka0.03 xG
  2. 1st 12:09ANAB. Sennecke0.24 xG
  3. 1st 14:05ANAL. CarlssonPP0.13 xG
  4. 2nd 8:02CGYA. Suniev0.19 xG
  5. 3rd 15:38CGYM. Pospisil0.07 xG
  6. 3rd 18:38CGYY. SharangovichEN0.96 xG

Team Stats

CGYANA
36Shots on goal25
4.83Expected goals2.66
72Shot attempts65
285v5 shots on goal22
0/3Power play1/5
17Hits22
15Blocked shots20
17Penalty minutes13
17Giveaways14
4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 4.83 xGANA 2.66 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdCGY goal, 8:32ANA goal, 12:09ANA goal, 14:05CGY goal, 8:02CGY goal, 15:38CGY goal, 18:38

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY35 on goal, 4 scored
ANA25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. SunievLW112122+2213:160:48
M. BacklundC0113100021:100:00
J. FarabeeLW0112000020:221:30
Y. SharangovichC101101+2217:180:48
R. StromeC011700+1213:340:48
M. PospisilC101430+1013:250:00
M. TsyplakovRW011031+229:370:48
A. KlapkaRW101211+158:300:00
M. CoronatoRW0005000217:091:30
M. GridinRW000200+1014:161:30
M. FrostC0002120013:401:30
J. CastagnaC000210+1010:520:00
S. NemecD011101+1019:550:48
Y. KuznetsovD011112+1018:500:00
Z. WhitecloudD000131+1024:160:00
K. BahlD0000120023:070:00
J. MiddletonD000202+1018:130:00
Z. ParekhD000000+1213:301:30
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Wolf25232.92059:39Win
D. Cooley000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. SenneckeRW101400-2222:525:19
L. CarlssonC101200-1022:185:11
M. GranlundC0112020020:525:22
J. CaulfieldRW011240-2017:014:37
A. KillornLW000311-2216:181:26
S. ColangeloRW0002300013:361:32
T. WasheC000023-2013:260:00
N. NesterenkoC0002200013:020:00
R. McQueenC0001010011:262:02
A. GreerLW000130-1210:540:08
F. VatranoRW0001100010:461:35
J. MalottLW000000-1510:150:00
J. LaCombeD000012-1027:465:46
N. WarrenD0001430018:320:06
T. LuneauD000201-2018:081:04
P. MintyukovD000002-1217:070:00
D. HellesonD000103-1017:050:02
T. HindsD000112-1013:430:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal35323.91458:14Loss
V. Husso000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1J. Farabee12:40Y. Sharangovich13:17M. Backlund14:55
Line 2M. Coronato13:58A. Suniev12:03M. Frost10:49
Line 3M. Gridin12:46R. Strome12:05M. Pospisil11:33
Line 4J. Castagna9:52M. Tsyplakov8:17A. Klapka8:30
Pair 1Z. Whitecloud17:06Y. Kuznetsov16:18
Pair 2K. Bahl16:09S. Nemec17:29
Pair 3J. Middleton15:03Z. Parekh12:00

ANA

Line 1L. Carlsson14:24B. Sennecke14:39A. Killorn14:13
Line 2S. Colangelo12:04N. Nesterenko12:02M. Granlund12:03
Line 3T. Washe12:01J. Malott10:15J. Caulfield10:38
Line 4F. Vatrano9:11R. McQueen9:24A. Greer10:18
Pair 1J. LaCombe17:36N. Warren16:03
Pair 2D. Helleson15:05P. Mintyukov15:19
Pair 3T. Hinds13:43T. Luneau15:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 17 overs hit (53%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
ANA A. Killorn2.5+140-1903Over
ANA B. Sennecke2.5-130+1204Over
ANA L. Carlsson2.5-125+1052Under
CGY M. Coronato2.5+115-1405Over
ANA M. Granlund2.5+125-1602Under
ANA A. Greer1.5+100-1301Under
ANA F. Vatrano1.5-110-1201Under
ANA J. Caulfield1.5+120-1552Over
CGY J. Farabee1.5-150+1202Over
ANA J. LaCombe1.5-175+1420Under
CGY M. Backlund1.5-180+1443Over
CGY M. Frost1.5-130+1202Over
CGY M. Gridin1.5-130+1002Over
ANA S. Colangelo1.5-110-1252Over
CGY S. Nemec1.5+120-1351Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.5-125-1051Under
CGY Z. Parekh1.5-110-1200Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamRyan Strome CGY Faces ANA, his team until Mar 20261 A, 7 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCGY 2.7, ANA 3.5CGY 4, ANA 2
Total goals6.26
Shots on goalCGY 25.8, ANA 32.9CGY 36, ANA 25
Win chanceANA 62%CGY won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA B. Sennecke3.040.90131%1
ANA L. Carlsson2.820.94130%1
CGY M. Backlund2.130.50119%0
CGY M. Coronato2.150.61022%0
ANA M. Granlund2.120.89126%0
ANA A. Killorn2.030.56024%0
CGY J. Farabee1.920.57123%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.800.78012%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.810.50123%1
ANA N. Nesterenko1.720.42017%0
CGY M. Frost1.720.56021%0
CGY M. Gridin1.720.53017%0
CGY Z. Parekh1.600.38011%0
ANA F. Vatrano1.610.34016%0
CGY S. Nemec1.510.41112%0
CGY A. Suniev1.510.36214%1
ANA A. Greer1.410.37015%0
CGY R. Strome1.270.46115%0
CGY M. Pospisil1.240.2618%1
ANA P. Mintyukov1.200.3107%0
ANA N. Warren1.210.3705%0
ANA S. Colangelo1.120.30016%0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov1.110.2216%0
ANA J. Caulfield1.120.31112%0
ANA T. Washe1.100.30014%0
CGY M. Tsyplakov1.000.2519%0
CGY A. Klapka1.020.26111%1
ANA T. Luneau1.020.2806%0
ANA J. Malott1.000.1906%0
ANA T. Hinds0.910.1103%0
CGY Z. Whitecloud0.910.2506%0
CGY J. Middleton0.820.2205%0
CGY K. Bahl0.800.2505%0
ANA D. Helleson0.510.1503%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.