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Game Recap
CGY2
CBJ5
CBJ beat CGY 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.54 expected goals to 2.39. K. Marchenko led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). E. Merzlikins stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| CBJ | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 11:56CBJA. FantilliPP0.02 xG
- 1st 16:42CBJK. Johnson0.13 xG
- 2nd 4:43CBJZ. Werenski0.21 xG
- 2nd 14:59CGYB. Coleman0.57 xG
- 3rd 4:46CBJA. Fantilli0.15 xG
- 3rd 11:00CGYN. KadriPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 18:20CBJK. MarchenkoEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
CGYCBJ
29Shots on goal34
2.39Expected goals3.54
60Shot attempts53
235v5 shots on goal27
1/2Power play1/1
28Hits24
10Blocked shots20
19Penalty minutes19
34Giveaways27
7Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.39 xGCBJ 3.54 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Coleman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:00 |
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 17:17 | 1:24 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 10 | 12:45 | 1:24 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:36 | 1:08 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:31 | 1:08 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 | 1:08 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:13 | 1:13 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 | 1:08 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:55 | 1:24 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10:56 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:10 | 1:23 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:28 | 0:01 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:17 | 1:08 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 21:24 | 0:11 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 16:19 | 1:13 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:25 | 1:04 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:47 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 | 0:47 |
| K. Johnson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:19 | 1:13 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:01 | 1:02 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:58 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:56 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 25:33 | 1:13 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:59 | 0:47 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +4 | 0 | 24:27 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Harris | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 9:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Greaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 3.4, CBJ 3.2 | CGY 2, CBJ 5 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 32.4, CBJ 31.6 | CGY 29, CBJ 34 |
| Win chance | CGY 51% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.3 | 2 | 0.91 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.1 | 5 | 0.84 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.7 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.6 | 3 | 0.74 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.6 | 5 | 0.60 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 4 | 0.67 | 3 | 29% | 1 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.3 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.3 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.3 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.2 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.2 | 2 | 0.56 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.1 | 2 | 0.56 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.9 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.7 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.6 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.5 | 4 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Harris | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.6 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.