FLA beat CGY 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.84 expected goals to 1.48. FLA outshot CGY 42 to 23. E. Rodrigues led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Gadjovich had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. S. Bobrovsky stopped 23 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FLA | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
- 2nd 4:47FLAJ. Gadjovich0.54 xG
- 2nd 19:24FLAE. Rodrigues0.05 xG
- 3rd 16:08FLAM. Samoskevich0.17 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 1.48 xGFLA 3.84 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 1:46 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:13 | 1:21 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:00 | 0:35 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 1:00 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 | 1:56 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 1:21 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:09 | 1:16 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:00 | 1:45 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:08 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:51 | 1:15 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:06 | 0:07 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 28:56 | 2:01 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 22:22 | 1:12 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 21:17 | 0:07 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:49 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| I. Solovyov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:13 | 4:50 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:30 | 2:01 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:20 | 2:04 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 | 5:09 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 5:14 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18:16 | 5:06 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 1:56 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 1:16 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:29 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:04 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 21:17 | 5:05 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:56 | 2:05 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:32 | 0:35 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 23 | 23 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.6, FLA 3.3 | CGY 0, FLA 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 26.5, FLA 32.4 | CGY 23, FLA 42 |
| Win chance | FLA 63% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.3 | 4 | 0.90 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.2 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.2 | 5 | 0.67 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.9 | 5 | 1.05 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.5 | 2 | 1.09 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.4 | 4 | 0.52 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.3 | 4 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.3 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.2 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.1 | 5 | 0.47 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 2.1 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.0 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.9 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.9 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.9 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.6 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.5 | 4 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY I. Solovyov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.1 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.9 | 4 | 0.13 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.