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Game Recap
CGY2
PIT1
CGY beat PIT 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.82 expected goals to 2.73. A. Mantha had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. D. Cooley stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| PIT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 2:33CGYC. Zary0.17 xG
- 2nd 9:17PITE. Chinakhov0.12 xG
- 3rd 0:42CGYM. Coronato0.12 xG
Team Stats
CGYPIT
25Shots on goal28
1.82Expected goals2.73
50Shot attempts59
205v5 shots on goal23
0/3Power play0/3
17Hits15
18Blocked shots17
8Penalty minutes10
14Giveaways15
3Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 1.82 xGPIT 2.73 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:37 | 0:50 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:15 | 4:15 |
| C. Zary | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:53 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:13 | 4:20 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:32 | 4:19 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19:31 | 4:17 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:53 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:12 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:00 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:00 | 0:00 |
| W. Stromgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:27 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 25:04 | 3:33 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 23:21 | 1:37 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:16 | 0:41 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:59 | 3:46 |
| B. Kindel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:13 | 3:48 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:09 | 1:21 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:57 | 3:56 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:03 | 3:50 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:02 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:53 | 1:08 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:06 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:52 | 1:10 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:05 | 1:12 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 7:45 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:03 | 3:44 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:51 | 1:27 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 18:57 | 0:20 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| J. St. Ivany | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Silovs | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 57:53 | Loss |
| S. Skinner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CGY
Line 1J. Huberdeau13:36N. Kadri13:29J. Farabee11:11
Line 2M. Backlund12:55M. Coronato11:15Y. Sharangovich10:41
Line 4W. Stromgren7:27R. Lomberg8:00J. Kirkland5:37
Pair 1K. Bahl16:19R. Andersson15:50
Pair 2M. Weegar15:53Y. Kuznetsov15:09
PIT
Line 2C. Dewar12:12N. Acciari11:21B. Lizotte10:30
Line 3E. Malkin10:48B. Kindel9:19E. Chinakhov8:05
Line 4J. Brazeau9:41K. Hayes7:45A. Mantha8:35
Pair 2P. Wotherspoon15:40E. Karlsson14:52
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.9, PIT 3.3 | CGY 2, PIT 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 27.8, PIT 30.2 | CGY 25, PIT 28 |
| Win chance | PIT 57% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.0 | 3 | 0.81 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.8 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.6 | 3 | 1.10 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.3 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.2 | 0 | 0.80 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.2 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.1 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.9 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kindel | 1.9 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.8 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.8 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.7 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT A. Mantha | 1.7 | 5 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.6 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT E. Chinakhov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT J. Brazeau | 1.5 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kulak | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 1.0 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT J. Ivany | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.6 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.