Game Recap: CGY 2, TOR 6, March 17, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

CGY2

FinalMon, Mar 17, 2025Every game that night

TOR6

TOR beat CGY 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.06 expected goals to 2.25. A. Matthews led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Woll stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	1	0	1	2
TOR	1	4	1	6

1st 1:47TORM. Domi0.19 xG
1st 19:13CGYR. Andersson0.11 xG
2nd 1:39TORW. NylanderPP0.13 xG
2nd 9:34TORN. Robertson0.22 xG
2nd 15:41TORA. MatthewsPP0.11 xG
2nd 18:54TORA. MatthewsPP0.20 xG
3rd 3:03TORB. McMann0.09 xG
3rd 19:12CGYK. Bahl0.03 xG

Team Stats

CGYTOR

26Shots on goal29

2.25Expected goals3.06

71Shot attempts48

235v5 shots on goal24

0/4Power play3/3

31Hits20

10Blocked shots23

6Penalty minutes10

9Giveaways18

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.25 xGTOR 3.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY26 on goal, 2 scored

TOR28 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	17:56	4:45
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	15:48	2:56
M. Pospisil	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	12:34	0:06
D. Hunt	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	12:32	0:00
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	19:40	5:01
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	18:06	5:00
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	18:01	4:41
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	17:28	3:09
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:00	3:07
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	12:27	0:10
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	12:06	2:50
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:07	0:03
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	3	2	3	+1	0	20:44	2:57
K. Bahl	D	1	0	1	3	3	0	+1	0	19:32	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	2	22:32	4:08
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	18:07	0:11
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	16:01	0:56
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	15:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	26	21	5	.808	40:00	Loss
D. Vladar	3	2	1	.667	20:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	2	1	3	5	1	3	+1	0	16:56	3:10
W. Nylander	RW	1	2	3	4	0	1	0	0	15:49	3:10
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	16:37	3:10
M. Domi	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+3	0	12:14	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	2	3	0	-1	0	19:52	3:10
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	14:15	0:00
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	13:31	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	4	1	2	+2	4	12:27	0:00
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	16:20	3:10
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	14:50	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	12:38	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:05	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	2	2	0	0	1	-1	0	19:24	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	19:20	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	6	16:18	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	21:34	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	19:07	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	18:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	26	24	2	.923	59:56	Win
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamChris Tanev TOR Faces CGY, his team until Feb 20241 SOG
HometownMorgan Frost CGY Plays near home (born in Aurora)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.8, TOR 3.3	CGY 2, TOR 6
Total goals	6.1	8
Shots on goal	CGY 28.3, TOR 29.3	CGY 26, TOR 29
Win chance	TOR 58%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.0	5	1.23	3	47%	2
CGY N. Kadri	3.4	1	0.88	0	30%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.2	4	1.07	3	39%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.7	2	0.90	0	33%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.3	2	0.61	0	11%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.2	1	0.54	0	23%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	2	0.52	0	20%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.1	1	1.19	2	30%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	2.0	0	0.83	1	25%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.9	2	0.70	1	28%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.9	3	0.44	1	22%	1
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	3	0.43	1	9%	1
CGY M. Frost	1.8	1	0.52	0	18%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	0	0.58	1	9%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.6	2	0.40	0	17%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.6	3	0.50	1	22%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.6	0	0.43	0	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	0	0.39	2	7%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	4	0.36	1	17%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.4	1	0.53	2	14%	1
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.4	0	0.38	1	17%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.3	1	0.34	1	10%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	2	0.32	0	6%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	2	0.29	0	12%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.9	3	0.24	1	4%	1
CGY D. Hunt	0.9	1	0.19	1	9%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
CGY A. Klapka	0.9	1	0.14	0	9%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	1	0.20	0	9%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	1	0.13	0	7%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	1	0.18	0	4%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	1	0.12	0	3%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.7	2	0.12	0	6%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	1	0.09	1	2%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	1	0.22	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.