Game Recap: CGY 1, UTA 3, October 15, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

CGY1

FinalWed, Oct 15, 2025Every game that night

UTA3

UTA beat CGY 3-1, with the chances close: 3.27 expected goals to 3.55. UTA outshot CGY 32 to 20. N. Schmaltz had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. K. Vejmelka stopped 19 of 20.

Team Stats

CGYUTA

20Shots on goal32

3.55Expected goals3.27

55Shot attempts58

145v5 shots on goal21

1/4Power play0/6

21Hits25

14Blocked shots17

21Penalty minutes15

11Giveaways10

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 3.55 xGUTA 3.27 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY19 on goal, 1 scored

UTA28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	19:46	5:47
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	2	15:01	5:21
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	2	19:49	5:33
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	19:09	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	17:58	0:30
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	16:11	5:07
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:38	0:45
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:35	0:19
S. Honzek	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	13:00	0:00
J. Kirkland	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:19	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	6	1	-1	0	8:26	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	7	7:30	0:03
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	23:23	0:45
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	2	23:54	5:16
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	23:16	0:00
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	17:25	1:01
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	14:36	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	13:22	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Cooley	31	29	2	.935	58:42	Loss
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	6	1	0	+1	0	19:52	6:28
B. Hayton	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	18:08	3:34
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:30	3:44
K. Stenlund	C	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	2	14:30	0:00
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	20:28	7:17
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	2	20:23	7:06
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	+1	0	16:54	7:06
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	7	14:17	2:40
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	2	6	1	+1	0	13:45	0:51
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	11:13	4:23
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	6	2	0	0	10:28	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:55	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	19:20	0:09
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	2	24:21	6:25
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	22:29	4:26
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	16:32	0:00
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	14:17	0:01
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	20	19	1	.950	59:42	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1N. Kadri12:23C. Zary12:24Y. Sharangovich10:34

Line 2M. Backlund12:54B. Coleman12:00S. Honzek9:57

Line 3J. Farabee10:06M. Frost8:18M. Coronato9:28

Line 4R. Lomberg8:17J. Kirkland6:20A. Klapka7:27

Pair 1K. Bahl16:04R. Andersson13:56

Pair 2Z. Parekh14:14B. Pachal12:01

Pair 3M. Weegar13:44J. Hanley11:23

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz12:34B. Hayton13:19C. Keller12:27

Line 2D. Guenther9:30L. Cooley10:07J. Peterka11:54

Line 3K. Stenlund10:38B. Tanev9:18K. Yamamoto6:31

Line 4L. Crouse9:07J. McBain7:59M. Carcone7:55

Pair 1M. Sergachev14:55D. Simashev13:48

Pair 2N. Schmidt12:50J. Marino13:46

Pair 3I. Cole13:12O. Maatta11:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMacKenzie Weegar UTA Faces CGY, his team until Mar 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.7, UTA 3.4	CGY 1, UTA 3
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	CGY 26.2, UTA 30.1	CGY 20, UTA 32
Win chance	UTA 62%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	3.3	3	0.92	0	33%	0
CGY N. Kadri	3.1	1	0.81	1	29%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.7	4	1.04	0	33%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.2	4	0.83	0	29%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.2	2	0.74	1	27%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	6	0.77	1	24%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.1	3	0.55	0	22%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.1	0	0.49	0	11%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.1	2	0.45	0	20%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.9	1	0.52	1	19%	1
CGY M. Backlund	1.9	1	0.38	0	16%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	2	0.36	1	9%	1
CGY J. Farabee	1.8	4	0.42	0	18%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	1	0.64	0	11%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.6	1	0.45	1	16%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	2	0.32	0	18%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.5	1	0.37	0	16%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.5	1	0.42	0	19%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.4	0	0.35	0	15%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.4	3	0.35	1	17%	1
UTA J. McBain	1.4	1	0.42	0	17%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.3	1	0.35	0	17%	0
CGY S. Honzek	1.3	2	0.18	0	11%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.2	1	0.31	0	6%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	0	0.33	0	15%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	0	0.19	0	3%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.9	1	0.23	0	11%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	0	0.15	0	7%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.29	1	3%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	0	0.15	0	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.4	0	0.20	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.