Game Recap: CGY 0, VGK 5, October 28, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

CGY0

FinalMon, Oct 28, 2024Every game that night

VGK5

VGK beat CGY 5-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.57 expected goals to 1.54. VGK outshot CGY 38 to 16. K. Kolesar led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Kolesar had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. A. Hill stopped 16 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	0	0	0	0
VGK	1	1	3	5

1st 6:39VGKA. Pietrangelo0.08 xG
2nd 3:30VGKM. Stone0.14 xG
3rd 2:19VGKK. Kolesar0.17 xG
3rd 13:59VGKK. Kolesar0.24 xG
3rd 14:14VGKN. Roy0.10 xG

Team Stats

CGYVGK

16Shots on goal38

1.54Expected goals3.57

59Shot attempts68

135v5 shots on goal33

0/1Power play0/2

23Hits10

23Blocked shots23

4Penalty minutes2

18Giveaways15

11Takeaways15

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 1.54 xGVGK 3.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY16 on goal, 0 scored

VGK37 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Zary	C	3	1	0	-1	0	19:06	0:38
N. Kadri	C	0	0	1	-3	0	17:38	1:22
B. Coleman	LW	2	2	0	-1	0	16:48	0:38
J. Huberdeau	LW	1	0	3	-1	0	16:47	1:22
M. Pospisil	C	2	3	0	-1	0	16:25	0:00
M. Backlund	C	1	0	1	-1	0	16:07	0:38
Y. Sharangovich	C	3	1	1	-1	0	15:39	1:22
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	0	0	14:27	0:38
R. Lomberg	LW	0	1	0	-2	0	12:04	0:00
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	-1	0	11:57	1:22
K. Rooney	C	0	5	1	-1	0	10:24	0:00
J. Kirkland	C	0	1	2	-2	2	9:25	0:00
R. Andersson	D	1	0	6	-3	0	25:40	0:38
K. Bahl	D	0	3	4	-2	2	23:03	0:00
M. Weegar	D	1	1	0	-1	0	22:39	1:22
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	0	0	18:35	0:00
J. Hanley	D	1	4	2	-2	0	14:43	0:00
B. Pachal	D	1	1	2	-2	0	14:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	38	33	5	.868	60:00	Loss
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Roy	C	1	2	3	4	0	0	+3	0	13:52	1:39
K. Kolesar	RW	2	1	3	4	1	0	+3	0	10:33	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	2	2	0	1	1	+3	0	9:02	0:00
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	2	19:42	3:17
M. Stone	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	18:07	2:21
W. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	3	1	2	+1	0	14:21	0:50
A. Holtz	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	13:34	0:00
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	17:11	0:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:00	3:10
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	16:59	3:19
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	15:36	0:43
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	15:19	0:00
A. Pietrangelo	D	1	0	1	4	0	1	+3	0	19:54	0:41
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	22:11	3:11
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+3	0	21:18	0:49
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	+1	0	19:11	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	0	18:39	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	15:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	16	16	0	1.000	60:00	Win
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNoah Hanifin VGK Faces CGY, his team until Mar 20242 SOG
Old teamRasmus Andersson VGK Faces CGY, his team until Jan 20261 SOG
BirthdayJack Eichel VGK Turns 28 that day1 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 3.0, VGK 3.6	CGY 0, VGK 5
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	CGY 30.0, VGK 30.8	CGY 16, VGK 38
Win chance	VGK 59%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.7	4	1.16	1	34%	0
CGY N. Kadri	3.4	0	0.83	0	28%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.6	2	0.59	0	25%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.5	1	0.54	0	19%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.5	3	0.65	0	28%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.4	1	0.53	0	12%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.2	3	0.63	0	26%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.1	3	1.01	1	29%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.0	1	0.71	0	25%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.0	2	0.73	0	10%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.0	3	0.69	1	23%	0
CGY A. Kuzmenko	1.8	0	0.75	0	29%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	1	0.53	0	9%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.8	3	0.56	0	19%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.7	4	0.54	1	8%	1
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.7	1	0.71	0	19%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.7	2	0.50	0	9%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.7	2	0.39	0	12%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	1	0.68	0	23%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.5	0	0.26	0	6%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.4	4	0.54	3	18%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.4	4	0.42	0	19%	0
CGY A. Mantha	1.4	0	0.47	0	19%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.4	0	0.38	0	13%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.4	1	0.33	1	16%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.2	0	0.30	0	4%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	1	0.30	0	5%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	4	0.32	3	13%	2
CGY B. Pachal	0.9	1	0.14	0	3%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	0	0.13	0	8%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.9	0	0.19	0	3%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.8	1	0.24	0	6%	0
VGK C. Schwindt	0.8	0	0.16	2	8%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.8	0	0.28	0	10%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.7	0	0.11	0	6%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.5	1	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.