Game Recap: CGY 0, VGK 3, December 29, 2024

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Game Recap

CGY0

FinalSun, Dec 29, 2024Every game that night

VGK3

VGK beat CGY 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.08 expected goals to 2.16. T. Pearson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Coleman had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. I. Samsonov stopped 31 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	0	0	0	0
VGK	0	1	2	3

2nd 15:59VGKB. Howden0.11 xG
3rd 14:41VGKV. OlofssonPP0.11 xG
3rd 19:53VGKT. PearsonEN0.63 xG

Team Stats

CGYVGK

31Shots on goal37

2.16Expected goals4.08

64Shot attempts69

225v5 shots on goal26

0/4Power play1/4

20Hits12

17Blocked shots17

8Penalty minutes8

10Giveaways10

8Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.16 xGVGK 4.08 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY30 on goal, 0 scored

VGK36 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Huberdeau	LW	1	1	1	-1	0	20:00	4:29
N. Kadri	C	5	0	1	0	0	19:53	3:47
M. Pospisil	C	3	1	0	0	0	18:48	2:45
M. Backlund	C	5	0	0	-1	0	18:43	2:19
B. Coleman	LW	6	4	1	-1	0	18:01	2:23
M. Coronato	RW	5	0	1	0	0	17:03	3:58
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	-1	0	16:54	4:31
C. Zary	C	2	1	0	-1	0	15:18	3:00
K. Rooney	C	1	2	0	-1	0	10:16	0:00
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	1	1	0	0	9:49	0:00
J. Pelletier	LW	0	2	0	-1	0	9:47	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	1	4	0	0	2	7:57	0:09
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	-1	0	25:09	3:23
R. Andersson	D	1	0	3	-1	4	23:31	3:30
K. Bahl	D	0	0	5	0	0	20:01	0:11
D. Miromanov	D	1	0	1	-2	0	17:55	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	3	1	0	2	13:53	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	1	0	0	13:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	36	34	2	.944	57:38	Loss
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Pearson	LW	1	1	2	1	2	0	+2	0	10:59	0:00
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	25:31	5:22
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	1	5	0	4	0	0	19:15	4:34
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	14:44	1:51
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	4	12:37	0:00
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	22:09	4:34
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	18:33	1:50
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	15:53	4:47
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:20	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	9:00	1:36
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	6:47	0:00
T. Laczynski	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	6:26	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	+2	0	19:08	4:36
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+1	0	24:54	1:02
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	21:59	1:48
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	19:38	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	15:02	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	14:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Samsonov	31	31	0	1.000	60:00	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamVictor Olofsson VGK First game against CGY since he left (his team until Apr 2026)1 G, 5 SOG
Old teamNoah Hanifin VGK Faces CGY, his team until Mar 20241 SOG
Old teamRasmus Andersson VGK Faces CGY, his team until Jan 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.8, VGK 3.8	CGY 0, VGK 3
Total goals	6.6	3
Shots on goal	CGY 28.4, VGK 31.8	CGY 31, VGK 37
Win chance	VGK 66%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.3	4	1.24	1	34%	0
CGY N. Kadri	2.9	5	0.72	0	25%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.4	5	0.48	0	17%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.3	3	0.80	0	27%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.3	2	0.55	1	27%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.2	6	0.52	0	23%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.1	5	0.49	0	19%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.0	2	1.08	0	30%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.0	3	0.66	0	24%	0
CGY M. Weegar	1.9	0	0.45	0	10%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.8	5	0.61	1	27%	1
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.8	1	0.53	1	9%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	2	0.68	2	10%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	1	0.72	0	21%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.8	1	0.53	0	11%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.7	0	0.44	0	20%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.7	1	0.42	0	9%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.6	3	0.36	0	12%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.5	2	0.44	0	16%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	3	0.47	1	21%	1
CGY D. Miromanov	1.3	1	0.23	0	6%	0
CGY A. Kuzmenko	1.3	0	0.54	0	23%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.3	0	0.42	0	17%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	1	0.29	0	5%	0
CGY J. Pelletier	1.2	0	0.27	0	10%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.2	1	0.35	2	13%	1
VGK A. Holtz	1.2	3	0.29	0	13%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.1	1	0.17	0	4%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	0	0.22	0	3%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.0	0	0.19	0	5%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.9	0	0.10	0	3%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.8	2	0.20	0	6%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.8	1	0.13	0	7%	0
VGK C. Schwindt	0.7	2	0.22	0	6%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.7	1	0.11	0	7%	0
VGK T. Laczynski	0.6	1	0.14	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.