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Game Recap
CGY2
FinalThu, Oct 15, 2026Every game that night
VGK6

VGK beat CGY 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.34 expected goals to 2.80. M. Stone scored three for VGK. B. Bowman had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. C. Hart stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CGY0112
VGK2136
  1. 1st 0:25VGKB. Howden0.03 xG
  2. 1st 9:34VGKJ. EichelSH0.23 xG
  3. 2nd 10:15CGYJ. MiddletonSH0.24 xG
  4. 2nd 11:03VGKB. BowmanPP0.16 xG
  5. 3rd 1:06VGKM. Stone0.16 xG
  6. 3rd 12:10VGKM. Stone0.50 xG
  7. 3rd 16:13VGKM. StonePP0.10 xG
  8. 3rd 18:40CGYM. CoronatoPP0.11 xG

Team Stats

CGYVGK
30Shots on goal33
2.80Expected goals4.34
63Shot attempts60
265v5 shots on goal20
1/2Power play2/5
24Hits17
16Blocked shots15
24Penalty minutes18
17Giveaways15
5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.80 xGVGK 4.34 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdVGK goal, 0:25VGK goal, 9:34CGY goal, 10:15VGK goal, 11:03VGK goal, 1:06VGK goal, 12:10VGK goal, 16:13CGY goal, 18:40

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY30 on goal, 2 scored
VGK33 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. FarabeeLW0113010020:241:16
M. CoronatoRW101300-1016:011:24
M. FrostC011210-2015:451:24
M. PospisilC011181+1413:400:04
M. GridinRW0110000013:401:24
M. BacklundC000120-1218:410:00
A. SunievLW000311-3014:210:44
R. StromeC000200-1013:480:43
Y. SharangovichC000100-2012:030:43
A. KlapkaRW000122-1011:220:00
J. CastagnaC0000210410:390:00
M. TsyplakovRW000110-109:480:38
J. MiddletonD10122101019:140:00
K. BahlD000021-1221:580:00
Z. WhitecloudD0002030021:240:00
S. NemecD000301-2020:540:43
Z. ParekhD000413-1217:251:29
Y. KuznetsovD000121-1017:190:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Wolf33276.81860:00Loss
D. Cooley000–0:00

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
I. BarbashevLW033410+2015:263:04
J. EichelC123410+2015:165:22
M. StoneRW303300+2014:014:44
M. MarnerRW0221100018:435:18
B. BowmanRW1015110018:153:36
W. KarlssonC011101+1017:083:04
B. HowdenC101111+1414:410:00
T. HertlC000312-1016:515:17
T. ConnellyLW000100-1014:595:11
M. GatcombC0001610014:510:00
N. DowdC0000030014:270:00
R. LavoieC00012001010:380:00
N. HanifinD011001+1018:240:07
J. LauzonD000022+1220:450:02
R. AnderssonD000300+1020:063:01
S. TheodoreD000101+2018:483:04
B. McNabbD000100+2216:220:00
D. CoghlanD000312+1015:260:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hart30282.93359:34Win
A. Hill000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund12:14J. Farabee13:23Y. Sharangovich7:16
Line 2M. Frost13:05A. Suniev13:03M. Coronato13:02
Line 3R. Strome12:01M. Gridin12:16M. Pospisil11:29
Line 4J. Castagna9:37M. Tsyplakov8:44A. Klapka11:22
Pair 1K. Bahl17:53S. Nemec17:48
Pair 2J. Middleton15:20Z. Parekh15:11
Pair 3Z. Whitecloud13:08Y. Kuznetsov12:48

VGK

Line 1N. Dowd12:24M. Gatcomb12:33B. Bowman12:18
Line 2W. Karlsson13:13M. Marner12:06B. Howden13:47
Line 3T. Hertl11:13R. Lavoie10:38T. Connelly9:28
Line 4M. Stone9:09I. Barbashev11:28J. Eichel9:10
Pair 1R. Andersson15:46J. Lauzon16:42
Pair 2N. Hanifin15:36D. Coghlan13:48
Pair 3B. McNabb15:12S. Theodore15:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 20 overs hit (50%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
VGK J. Eichel3.5+115-1404Over
CGY M. Coronato2.5+142-1753Over
VGK M. Marner2.5+135-1551Under
VGK T. Hertl2.5+122-1403Over
VGK B. Howden1.5-120-1051Under
VGK B. McNabb1.5+155-1901Under
VGK D. Coghlan1.5+155-2003Over
VGK I. Barbashev1.5-105-1104Over
CGY J. Farabee1.5-118+1053Over
CGY M. Backlund1.5-170+1351Under
CGY M. Frost1.5+106-1182Over
CGY M. Gridin1.5-120-1050Under
VGK M. Stone1.5-185+1403Over
VGK N. Hanifin1.5+115-1500Under
VGK R. Andersson1.5-150+1253Over
VGK S. Theodore1.5-150+1201Under
VGK T. Connelly1.5-185+1351Under
VGK W. Karlsson1.5-175+1501Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.5-105-1251Under
CGY Z. Parekh1.5+122-1404Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCGY 2.5, VGK 3.5CGY 2, VGK 6
Total goals6.08
Shots on goalCGY 25.6, VGK 31.0CGY 30, VGK 33
Win chanceVGK 65%VGK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
VGK J. Eichel3.141.24333%1
VGK M. Marner2.411.17231%0
VGK T. Hertl2.330.73026%0
VGK M. Stone2.231.03332%3
CGY M. Backlund2.110.44018%0
VGK T. Connelly2.110.53019%0
VGK W. Karlsson2.110.65124%0
CGY M. Coronato2.130.51120%1
CGY J. Farabee1.930.50121%0
VGK S. Theodore1.910.67012%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.710.44021%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.740.66323%0
CGY M. Gridin1.700.44115%0
VGK R. Andersson1.730.4209%0
CGY M. Frost1.620.46118%0
VGK B. Howden1.610.53123%1
VGK D. Coghlan1.430.1803%0
CGY A. Suniev1.430.36014%0
CGY S. Nemec1.330.3208%0
VGK M. Gatcomb1.310.21011%0
VGK B. Bowman1.350.43114%1
CGY Z. Parekh1.340.2807%0
CGY R. Strome1.320.39013%0
CGY M. Pospisil1.210.2318%0
VGK J. Lauzon1.200.1704%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.200.3116%0
VGK B. McNabb1.110.3205%0
VGK R. Lavoie1.010.1707%0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov1.010.1905%0
CGY A. Klapka1.010.2109%0
CGY M. Tsyplakov0.910.2208%0
VGK N. Dowd0.900.26011%0
CGY Z. Whitecloud0.820.2105%0
CGY J. Middleton0.720.1814%1
CGY K. Bahl0.700.2004%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.