Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CGY3
WSH1
CGY beat WSH 3-1, with the chances close: 2.52 expected goals to 2.44. D. Vladar stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 11:47CGYM. Pospisil0.13 xG
- 1st 16:42CGYM. Coronato0.13 xG
- 3rd 4:52WSHA. OvechkinPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 15:32CGYJ. Huberdeau0.14 xG
Team Stats
CGYWSH
25Shots on goal27
2.52Expected goals2.44
54Shot attempts83
225v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play1/3
27Hits20
29Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways18
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.52 xGWSH 2.44 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:12 | 2:28 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 17:59 | 2:30 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:40 | 2:29 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 | 1:30 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 1:32 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 1:31 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 1:31 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 2:29 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:01 | 0:00 |
| I. Solovyov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 25:33 | 2:40 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | +1 | 0 | 23:31 | 1:20 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:36 | 4:20 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 2:36 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:16 | 2:39 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:07 | 2:35 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:48 | 1:45 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 1:44 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 1:27 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:14 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 8:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 27:15 | 2:46 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 26:18 | 1:34 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 55:30 | Loss |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.6, WSH 3.1 | CGY 3, WSH 1 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 27.8, WSH 28.0 | CGY 25, WSH 27 |
| Win chance | WSH 59% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.5 | 3 | 0.82 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.4 | 5 | 0.92 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.5 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.4 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.4 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.1 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.0 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.0 | 4 | 0.62 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 2 | 0.85 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.8 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.8 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.8 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.8 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.7 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.3 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY I. Solovyov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.7 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.