Game Recap: CHI 6, ANA 3, March 1, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI6

FinalSat, Mar 1, 2025Every game that night

ANA3

CHI beat ANA 6-3, with the chances close: 3.40 expected goals to 3.03. R. Donato led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). I. Lundestrom had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. A. Soderblom stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	3	3	6
ANA	0	2	1	3

2nd 7:48CHIW. Kaiser0.17 xG
2nd 8:33ANAL. Carlsson0.15 xG
2nd 10:24CHIP. MaroonPP0.12 xG
2nd 13:16CHIT. Teravainen0.14 xG
2nd 14:41ANAJ. LaCombe0.22 xG
3rd 4:53CHIL. Reichel0.25 xG
3rd 7:40CHIR. DonatoPP0.15 xG
3rd 10:56CHIR. Donato0.23 xG
3rd 17:16ANAL. Carlsson0.07 xG

Team Stats

CHIANA

24Shots on goal31

3.40Expected goals3.03

49Shot attempts64

195v5 shots on goal25

2/4Power play0/2

12Hits27

16Blocked shots10

10Penalty minutes14

14Giveaways16

8Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 3.40 xGANA 3.03 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI24 on goal, 6 scored

ANA31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Teravainen	C	1	2	3	1	0	1	+1	0	19:18	3:30
R. Donato	C	2	1	3	2	0	0	+2	0	18:07	4:15
L. Reichel	LW	1	1	2	1	0	2	+1	0	11:56	1:12
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-3	0	20:17	4:15
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	+3	0	15:20	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	11:29	1:06
C. Smith	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	10:56	1:17
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	21:28	4:21
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:46	2:03
A. Athanasiou	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:02	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	11:57	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	6	11:30	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	20:02	1:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	23:53	4:33
W. Kaiser	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	19:21	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	10:25	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	3	1	5	-2	4	21:17	0:13
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	19:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	31	28	3	.903	60:00	Win
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Vatrano	RW	0	2	2	4	0	0	+1	4	17:53	2:35
L. Carlsson	C	2	0	2	2	0	1	+1	0	15:58	1:24
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	0	19:24	2:35
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:01	2:36
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	18:55	1:25
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:02	2:33
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	-2	0	15:12	0:00
S. Colangelo	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	12:45	1:25
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:45	0:00
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	10:38	1:07
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:07	0:19
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	9:22	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	24:50	2:34
B. Dumoulin	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	17:55	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	2	8	0	+2	2	22:59	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	21:17	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	16:18	1:27
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	2	12:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	24	18	6	.750	60:00	Loss
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.7, ANA 3.2	CHI 6, ANA 3
Total goals	5.8	9
Shots on goal	CHI 26.4, ANA 31.1	CHI 24, ANA 31
Win chance	ANA 59%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA F. Vatrano	3.4	4	0.74	2	33%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.7	2	0.91	0	27%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.7	2	0.70	3	26%	2
ANA T. Terry	2.5	3	0.96	0	32%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.4	2	0.75	0	27%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	2.2	1	0.49	0	20%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.0	2	0.63	1	26%	0
ANA R. Strome	2.0	3	0.68	1	20%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	2.0	4	0.56	1	11%	1
ANA A. Killorn	1.9	1	0.61	0	25%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.9	4	0.44	1	21%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.8	1	0.74	3	24%	1
CHI F. Nazar	1.7	2	0.51	0	17%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.7	2	0.31	1	15%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	1.6	2	0.25	0	15%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.6	2	0.53	2	21%	2
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	1	0.32	0	6%	0
CHI A. Athanasiou	1.4	1	0.32	0	14%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.4	2	0.30	0	5%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.4	1	0.32	0	14%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.3	0	0.29	1	4%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.3	3	0.26	0	6%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.3	0	0.32	0	13%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.3	0	0.27	2	8%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.2	0	0.27	0	7%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.2	1	0.27	0	13%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.2	2	0.17	1	3%	1
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.1	0	0.33	0	6%	0
ANA J. Harkins	1.1	1	0.22	0	10%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.0	1	0.27	2	10%	1
CHI P. Maroon	1.0	1	0.25	1	9%	1
ANA B. Dumoulin	1.0	0	0.29	1	4%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.9	4	0.28	0	12%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.7	0	0.20	0	6%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.6	0	0.20	1	3%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	0	0.12	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.