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Game Recap
CHI1
FinalSun, Dec 7, 2025Every game that night
ANA7

ANA beat CHI 7-1, and the chances backed it up: 6.40 expected goals to 0.80. ANA outshot CHI 53 to 20. L. Carlsson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. LaCombe had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. V. Husso stopped 19 of 20.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CHI0011
ANA1427
  1. 1st 10:16ANAJ. Trouba0.01 xG
  2. 2nd 6:40ANAM. McTavishPP0.60 xG
  3. 2nd 9:26ANAB. Sennecke0.03 xG
  4. 2nd 16:09ANAA. Killorn0.17 xG
  5. 2nd 17:23ANAL. Carlsson0.06 xG
  6. 3rd 0:15ANAL. CarlssonPP0.21 xG
  7. 3rd 1:40CHIT. BertuzziPP0.12 xG
  8. 3rd 18:08ANAF. Vatrano0.18 xG

Team Stats

CHIANA
20Shots on goal53
0.80Expected goals6.40
32Shot attempts87
175v5 shots on goal42
1/2Power play2/5
15Hits15
10Blocked shots8
8Penalty minutes2
17Giveaways12
5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 0.80 xGANA 6.40 xGGoal

01234561st2nd3rdANA goal, 10:16ANA goal, 6:40ANA goal, 9:26ANA goal, 16:09ANA goal, 17:23ANA goal, 0:15CHI goal, 1:40ANA goal, 18:08

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI18 on goal, 1 scored
ANA53 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. BedardC011100-1018:500:44
T. BertuzziLW1013000018:250:41
R. GreeneC000010-2018:501:15
I. MikheyevRW000100-3016:240:00
T. TeravainenC000021-3015:291:24
F. NazarC0000010215:260:30
A. BurakovskyLW000011-2015:000:53
J. DickinsonC000100-3015:000:00
R. DonatoC0001010014:421:27
O. MooreC000230-1013:220:00
C. DachC0000300010:491:35
A. LevshunovD011300-1215:350:53
A. VlasicD000103-1022:300:00
W. KaiserD000110-1022:110:03
L. CrevierD0003210216:180:00
S. RinzelD000210-1014:521:15
C. MurphyD000102-3213:500:00
M. GrzelcykD000010-3013:250:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Soderblom53467.86860:00Loss
S. Knight000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. CarlssonC202400+1018:584:31
C. KreiderLW022310+2018:374:31
B. SenneckeRW112520+2015:392:31
C. GauthierLW022000+1015:122:31
R. StromeC022500+2211:441:16
T. TerryRW011300+1017:474:33
M. McTavishC101300+2015:482:31
A. KillornLW101100+2013:461:17
F. VatranoRW101610+2012:573:46
M. GranlundC0003020017:095:09
R. PoehlingC0002020014:290:45
R. JohnstonLW0002500012:430:43
J. LaCombeD011613+2023:065:41
J. TroubaD101401+2020:241:19
O. ZellwegerD011100+2018:082:36
P. MintyukovD011310+1017:540:44
R. GudasD011140+2016:070:00
D. HellesonD000100+1017:240:46
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
V. Husso20191.95060:00Win
V. Buteyets000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1T. Bertuzzi17:39F. Nazar13:42O. Moore12:37
Line 2A. Burakovsky14:07R. Greene13:39C. Bedard18:01
Line 3R. Donato13:15C. Dach9:14I. Mikheyev12:17
Line 4T. Teravainen10:03J. Dickinson11:12
Pair 1A. Vlasic17:23A. Levshunov14:37
Pair 2W. Kaiser18:11L. Crevier11:56
Pair 3M. Grzelcyk13:25S. Rinzel13:37

ANA

Line 1L. Carlsson14:27C. Kreider13:23T. Terry13:14
Line 2M. McTavish12:57B. Sennecke12:45C. Gauthier12:41
Line 3R. Poehling13:13R. Johnston12:00M. Granlund11:32
Line 4A. Killorn11:27R. Strome10:28F. Vatrano8:25
Pair 1J. Trouba17:44J. LaCombe17:25
Pair 2D. Helleson15:50P. Mintyukov15:54
Pair 3R. Gudas15:13O. Zellweger15:32

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCHI 2.7, ANA 3.5CHI 1, ANA 7
Total goals6.28
Shots on goalCHI 25.7, ANA 32.0CHI 20, ANA 53
Win chanceANA 62%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier3.800.97234%0
CHI C. Bedard2.910.97130%0
ANA T. Terry2.830.98131%0
ANA C. Kreider2.730.84241%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.641.03232%2
ANA M. McTavish2.330.73125%1
CHI F. Nazar2.200.71023%0
ANA F. Vatrano2.260.45122%1
CHI T. Bertuzzi2.030.69128%1
ANA B. Sennecke2.050.81224%1
ANA J. LaCombe2.060.67115%0
ANA O. Zellweger1.910.39112%0
CHI I. Mikheyev1.810.42021%0
ANA M. Granlund1.830.75019%0
CHI R. Donato1.810.51021%0
ANA A. Killorn1.810.50122%1
CHI A. Burakovsky1.700.66021%0
ANA J. Trouba1.640.3518%1
CHI R. Greene1.600.40018%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.400.65021%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.330.4515%0
ANA R. Strome1.350.41213%0
CHI O. Moore1.220.41013%0
ANA R. Poehling1.220.42016%0
CHI S. Rinzel1.220.2804%0
CHI J. Dickinson1.210.31015%0
ANA R. Gudas1.210.2414%0
ANA D. Helleson1.210.3209%0
CHI C. Dach1.100.23010%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.130.3518%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.110.2005%0
CHI L. Crevier1.130.2205%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.010.2203%0
CHI M. Grzelcyk1.000.2501%0
CHI C. Murphy0.910.1604%0
ANA R. Johnston0.520.1606%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.