Game Recap: CHI 1, CBJ 5, February 22, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI1

FinalSat, Feb 22, 2025Every game that night

CBJ5

CBJ beat CHI 5-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.39 expected goals to 2.92. Z. Werenski led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Smith had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. E. Merzlikins stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	1	0	1
CBJ	1	2	2	5

1st 4:10CBJK. Johnson0.09 xG
2nd 1:12CBJK. JohnsonPP0.08 xG
2nd 4:53CHIC. SmithPP0.09 xG
2nd 12:42CBJD. Mateychuk0.05 xG
3rd 13:51CBJZ. Werenski0.37 xG
3rd 14:44CBJA. Fantilli0.30 xG

Team Stats

CHICBJ

28Shots on goal21

2.92Expected goals2.39

52Shot attempts41

225v5 shots on goal19

1/4Power play1/1

14Hits39

8Blocked shots13

7Penalty minutes13

18Giveaways12

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.92 xGCBJ 2.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI28 on goal, 1 scored

CBJ20 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Nazar	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	15:08	2:16
C. Smith	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	13:08	2:15
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	-1	0	23:12	5:16
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	19:53	5:17
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:29	5:21
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:01	3:18
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:04	4:16
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:52	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:13	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	7	13:55	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	11:59	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:17	2:17
A. Vlasic	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	21:17	3:19
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:43	4:18
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	20:04	0:07
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	19:28	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	16:07	0:00
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	14:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	21	16	5	.762	59:43	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Sillinger	C	0	2	2	0	2	2	+2	2	17:08	0:00
K. Johnson	C	2	0	2	2	0	1	+2	0	16:32	1:32
D. Voronkov	LW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	2	15:20	1:32
B. Jenner	C	0	1	1	1	4	1	+2	0	16:56	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	16:17	1:32
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	3	4	0	+1	0	16:15	1:32
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	3	8	0	0	0	16:24	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	15:32	0:00
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:10	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	12:36	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	9:03	0:00
J. LaBate	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	5	7:19	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	2	3	2	0	1	+2	0	23:11	1:32
D. Mateychuk	D	1	0	1	4	2	1	+1	0	21:32	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	2	22:41	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	2	21:44	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	16:00	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	13:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	28	27	1	.964	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.6, CBJ 3.3	CHI 1, CBJ 5
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	CHI 25.5, CBJ 32.3	CHI 28, CBJ 21
Win chance	CBJ 62%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.7	2	1.05	3	18%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	3.2	3	0.86	1	32%	1
CBJ B. Jenner	3.1	1	0.77	1	35%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	3.0	1	0.84	2	34%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.9	1	0.87	1	32%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.7	5	0.96	0	28%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.6	2	0.67	0	26%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.4	0	0.52	2	19%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	2.3	2	0.82	2	28%	2
CHI S. Jones	2.3	1	0.53	0	11%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	1	0.59	0	25%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.8	1	0.75	0	24%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.8	5	0.33	1	16%	1
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	1	0.43	0	20%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.7	1	0.43	0	19%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.6	0	0.53	0	19%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.6	3	0.39	0	17%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.6	1	0.30	0	14%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	0	0.50	0	9%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.5	2	0.43	1	18%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.5	0	0.34	0	16%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.4	2	0.47	0	18%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.4	1	0.30	1	5%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.3	1	0.29	0	6%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.3	1	0.29	0	8%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.3	1	0.24	0	6%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.3	0	0.40	0	8%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.3	1	0.28	0	13%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.1	1	0.31	0	11%	0
CHI P. Maroon	1.1	1	0.27	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	4	0.22	1	6%	1
CHI P. Kurashev	1.0	1	0.34	0	12%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.9	0	0.14	0	2%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.6	1	0.17	0	4%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.6	1	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.