Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CHI0
PIT5
PIT beat CHI 5-0, with the chances close: 3.06 expected goals to 2.37. K. Hayes led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Hayes had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. T. Jarry stopped 26 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
- 1st 19:44PITS. CrosbyPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 4:45PITE. Karlsson0.05 xG
- 3rd 4:28PITK. Letang0.07 xG
- 3rd 7:42PITK. Hayes0.10 xG
- 3rd 18:13PITK. Hayes0.21 xG
Team Stats
CHIPIT
26Shots on goal27
2.37Expected goals3.06
54Shot attempts55
225v5 shots on goal22
0/2Power play1/3
7Hits15
8Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes4
28Giveaways22
8Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 2.37 xGPIT 3.06 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:50 | 3:12 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:45 | 3:18 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:52 | 3:14 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:28 | 3:12 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:00 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:12 |
| O. Moore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:12 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:06 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:13 | 0:00 |
| S. Rinzel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:02 | 3:13 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:45 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:05 | 0:10 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:48 | 0:00 |
| K. Korchinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 17:39 | 0:11 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 27 | 22 | 5 | .815 | 60:00 | Loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:42 | 2:18 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:34 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:13 |
| S. Crosby | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:07 | 4:04 |
| V. Koivunen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:14 | 2:18 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:24 | 1:48 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 2:19 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Koppanen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:02 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| R. McGroarty | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 1:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:25 | 1:48 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:04 | 2:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:46 | 2:06 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 26 | 26 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.8, PIT 3.5 | CHI 0, PIT 5 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 25.3, PIT 31.4 | CHI 26, PIT 27 |
| Win chance | PIT 61% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.1 | 6 | 1.32 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| PIT B. Rust | 3.1 | 3 | 1.01 | 2 | 35% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.7 | 0 | 0.92 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.5 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.4 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.2 | 0 | 0.90 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 2.0 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.8 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT R. McGroarty | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.7 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.5 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.5 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.4 | 5 | 0.35 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.3 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI K. Korchinski | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT C. Timmins | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI J. Veleno | 1.0 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT J. Koppanen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 0.9 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.